In Ukraine or in Europe: where and when can missile production for Patriot be deployed
Kyiv • UNN
President Trump granted Ukraine permission to produce missiles for the Patriot air defense system. Lockheed Martin supported the decision, and Zelenskyy stated the technical possibility by the end of 2026.
The decision of US President Donald Trump to grant Ukraine permission to produce missiles for the Patriot air defense system has caused a significant reaction in society and among experts. However, there are still more unknowns in the process of launching the production of these missiles. What exact license will Ukraine receive? Where will production be set up? And most importantly – when could it be launched? Read the answers to these and other questions about the production of Patriot missiles for Ukraine in the article by UNN.
Almost immediately after Trump's statement that Ukraine would receive licenses to manufacture missiles, information emerged that the defense company Lockheed Martin, which produces these missiles, supported the decision to grant our country licenses.
"We expect that by the end of 2026, our Ukrainian team will have the technical capability to produce American missiles," President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated at the same time.
The importance of the decision by American partners, given that Russia is betting on the use of ballistic missiles against peaceful Ukrainian cities, cannot be overstated. Patriot is a reliable and proven means of countering ballistic missiles. However, PAC missiles are a scarce and expensive commodity. Slightly more than 600 missiles are produced per year. And according to experts, in just five days of the Iranian conflict, US forces and troops of the Gulf countries used about 800 missiles. Ukraine, meanwhile, needs at least 2,000 such interceptors annually. Why that number? Military expert Oleksiy Hetman provided the answer to UNN. According to him, usually not one but two or three PAC-3 missiles are used to shoot down a ballistic missile: one launch gives a 70% probability of interception, two launches increase the probability to 90%, and three to 95%.
After the information about granting Ukraine licenses appeared, the question arose: what exactly would be covered by them. In particular, whether our country would receive permission to produce the simpler PAC-2 GEM-T from Raytheon, or to produce the PAC-3 MSE from Lockheed Martin. Sources cited, among others, by the publication Kyiv Independent, indicated that it is still about the more modern PAC-3. Currently, besides the US, only Japan has permission to produce such missiles.
Japan's experience
In 2006, Tokyo signed an agreement to produce Patriot interceptor missiles at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries facilities. Initially, the program covered the PAC-2 CRI (later replaced by the PAC-3 MSE). Notably, it took about two years to set up serial production. However, Japanese production was never fully localized – critical components, including seeker heads manufactured by Boeing, are still supplied from the US. Annual missile production is slightly more than 20 units. And their supply to other countries is not envisaged.
Another country that received a license is Germany. But for now, it concerns the production of only the PAC-2 GEM-T. And here a notable point is that MBDA Deutschland and Raytheon agreed to launch joint production back in 2022, and the plant is scheduled to start operating only in September of this year, with the first missiles expected in 2027. Ukraine is already claiming the first batches of missiles. However, their quantity does not meet our current needs – the plant gradually plans to reach a capacity of 180 interceptors per year.
Besides Germany, Poland received partial localization
In 2018, the Polish industry was entrusted with the production of side maneuvering engines for the PAC-3 MSE missile. However, the production line was certified only in September 2025, and the first order came seven years after the initial agreement. Poland is only now approaching a decision on a broader license for the full production of the PAC-3 MSE missile.
Most experts assume that Ukraine will receive a license to produce the PAC-3. However, they clarify that it is actually about assembling missiles from foreign components.
"A license to assemble missiles from components produced by subcontractors. This is a complex product, and we are given the right to assemble all elements into the final product," explains economic expert Oleh Pendzyn.
By the way, there are about 400 contractor companies that produce components for the missile.
On time, bureaucracy, and production capacity
So, how long will it take to start missile production? The answer to this question depends on several factors. The first is the actual receipt of licenses and the provision of technical documentation. The second, which stems from the first, is bureaucracy. Even considering that Ukraine has significantly simplified many processes for obtaining formal permits to start production of one or another weapon — in this particular case, it is about joint production, which will in one way or another involve manufacturers from other countries. The third is a shortage of components. Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies in Oslo, suggests that a Ukrainian plant will be able to produce 200-300 interceptors per year. This figure is far from the required 2000 interceptors given the current intensity of Russian attacks. Another factor is the availability of specialists who need to be trained.
But still, the most important factor is the availability of production facilities that must be certified. And there are two options: a plant in Ukraine or in Europe. There have been opinions that, in fact, a production line for missiles specifically for Ukraine will be set up at a plant in Germany. Military expert Dmytro Sniehyrov also speaks in favor of this idea.
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"Why Germany — because there is experience in producing PAC-2 missiles, of the same line, but with different tactical and technical characteristics. Accordingly, if there is experience in producing anti-ballistic missiles (and under a license from the United States), there are security conditions, there is an industrial base, then all these advantages favor the version that production will be located in Europe to prevent the destruction of the enterprise by the Russian side. Second, there are appropriate technologies, a scientific base, a production base, trained personnel, that is, there is no need to train them, no need to create from scratch, the process itself is already well-established. That is, an understanding of the functionality. And this makes it possible to accelerate the production of the PAC-3," he said in a comment to UNN.
If production is decided to be carried out in Germany, then, as experts believe, its start will have to wait a year. And besides, the missile itself has a long production cycle — up to 24 months.
If production is nevertheless decided to start in Ukraine? Obviously, a plant is needed that must be as secure as possible. Trained personnel are needed. The supply of all necessary components must be established. According to optimistic expert forecasts, this will take 2-3 years, according to more pessimistic ones - up to 6. It is clear that Ukraine does not have that much time.
Is there an alternative?
"When you have a full spectrum of threats, you need many different tools," says Tom Karako, missile defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Analysts suggest looking not so much for an alternative, but for a supplement. That is, not to abandon the production of missiles for the Patriot or receiving finished products from partners, but to supplement them with other means. Among the most effective alternatives to the American system are the updated Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG system, or another US-made system, THAAD. But here we run up against not only time, but also a shortage of such systems and their missiles. Another alternative is the Ukrainian FP-7.x missile, developed by Fire Point. It is this interceptor that is to become the main missile of the European anti-ballistic system Freyja.
Currently, the missile has passed flight tests at maximum accelerations. Next, it needs to be integrated with other components provided by European partners. These include, in particular, command posts, radars, and a seeker head. The system will be deployed on existing assets; the only important point is their integration. After the signing of a joint declaration on the Anti-Ballistic Coalition by the President of Ukraine and the leaders of 9 other European countries, this process should accelerate.
"This will be a joint product, because there is not one seeker head, but two seeker heads that can be used. There are a bunch of radars that can be used. A bunch of command centers. And we are simply doing it on an open architecture. Some countries, for example, do not want to buy command centers from other countries if they have their own. Okay, we are open, let's integrate. Open up your proprietary protocols (protocols that limit compatibility of products from different manufacturers - ed.), we will integrate into them, and that's it," explained the chief designer of Fire Point, Denys Shtilerman.
Also, the FP-7.x obviously requires a shorter production cycle than the PAC-3, and as Shtilerman stated – Fire Point is ready to share technologies so that the production of the interceptor can be scaled. Moreover, this missile is significantly cheaper than its counterparts. The interceptor from Fire Point costs half a million dollars without the "seeker", i.e., the seeker head, and with the "seeker" it will cost 750-800 thousand, compared to several million dollars.
"Even if we launch ten missiles that are significantly cheaper – it will be economically more advantageous," explains expert Oleksiy Hetman, and adds: it is important that Europeans are now ready to assist Ukraine in manufacturing such relatively cheap solutions in large quantities.
Economist Oleh Pendzyn adds that he has much more hope for Ukrainian ballistic missiles than for the rapid launch of the PAC-3 assembly process. At Fire Point itself, they expect the first interceptions by the end of 2027.