Empty launchers: can Ukraine close the deficit of Patriot missiles

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sent a letter to US President Donald Trump and Congress regarding the depletion of Ukraine's air defense system, primarily its ballistic missile defense capabilities. Zelenskyy emphasized that the current pace of weapons supplies does not match the threats Ukraine is facing. Read more about whether Ukraine can obtain more missiles to shoot down ballistics in the UNN report. 

The math is not in our favor

Ukraine has a critical shortage of PAC-3 missiles for Patriot systems capable of intercepting ballistics.

"We see that ballistic missiles continue to be shot down, but the effectiveness is gradually decreasing. More and more missiles are breaking through air defenses and reaching their targets. We have a shortage of PAC-3 missiles for Patriot,"

The Air Force Command states directly that after every massive Russian attack, interceptor stocks are depleted, and the pace of supplies cannot keep up to compensate. Adding to the criticality of the situation is the fact that interceptor missiles are needed not only by Ukraine – Middle Eastern countries also require them. PAC-3s themselves are a scarce commodity. 

These surface-to-air guided missiles are manufactured by the American company Lockheed Martin. In 2025, 620 such munitions were produced, which was 20% more than the previous year. In 2026, the production of 650 PAC-3s is expected. For context: during the winter of 2025-2026 alone, the Russian Federation launched about 250 ballistic, aeroballistic, and hypersonic missiles at Ukraine, according to Air Force statistics. At the same time, it is estimated that two interceptors are needed for each target. However, as the Defense Express portal points out, the shortage of countermeasures has led to Ukrainian Patriot operators being forced to spend only one MSE missile to engage ballistic targets. 

Despite some experts believing that Russian missile stocks, including ballistic ones, are also being depleted – it is not worth relying solely on this. 

Ukraine has already proposed exchanging domestic interceptor drones for Patriot missiles, and Donald Trump suggested that partner countries share their own stocks with Ukraine. Not everyone agrees to this – as no one wants to reduce their own arsenal, which clearly won't be replenished anytime soon. This is likely why European partners became interested in the Ukrainian development. We are talking about the FP-7.x missile, which is already being called a cheaper analog of the Patriot and which formed the basis of the Freyja project - a pan-European ballistic shield. 

Ukrainian missile: a chance for the first interception by the end of the year

Recently, Denys Shtilerman, co-founder and chief designer of Fire Point, stated that Ukraine has a chance to conduct the first ballistic interception with its own FP-7.x missile by the end of the year, provided that the program for its launch does not face obstacles.  

"If everyone runs very fast, then by the end of the year we will be able to make the first interception, but everyone needs to do it very quickly, and any media scandal is very disruptive. Now we have already lost a whole month writing to everyone and telling everyone that Mindich has nothing to do with us. We are very grateful to the NABU for providing a letter that satisfied our foreign partners that there is no case against Fire Point or its owners,"

Dragging the company into corruption scandals has already delayed the start of the Freyja project: the program was supposed to start as early as June 2025, but due to additional compliance checks, the actual launch shifted to February 2026. Ultimately, the company passed all additional checks, and Germany, France, and Norway announced their participation in the project. 

From open sources, it is known about the FP-7.x that it will be capable of shooting down Russian missiles, including "Kinzhals." The guidance system will use an infrared thermal imaging homing head from the German company Diehl - the manufacturer of IRIS-T. The missile will be made of composite materials. Integration with Ukrainian air defense occurs via the Link-16 protocol according to NATO standards, with the possibility of connecting radars for course correction. 

One can only hope that no new obstacles will arise on the way to launching the production of our own interceptor missile. After all, while Patriot systems in Ukraine stand with empty launchers and the prospects of receiving a sufficient number of PAC-3s look dim – obstructing a company capable of creating an effective ballistic defense system is equivalent to suicide.