European NATO member countries may not be able to spend 5% on defense - Politico
Kyiv • UNN
Donald Trump will demand that NATO member countries increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. Some countries, such as Spain, are already expressing disagreement with these demands, while others are trying to please Trump to maintain the Alliance's unity amid the war in Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump will demand increased defense spending from other NATO members during the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) summit in The Hague. However, it is currently difficult to predict when European Alliance countries will be able to achieve such figures, UNN writes with reference to Politico.
Details
The transatlantic military alliance of 32 countries will commit to sharply increase defense spending to 5% of GDP — 3.5% of GDP for military spending and 1.5% for more broadly defined defense-related efforts. This commitment, a turning point that could rebalance transatlantic security, would allow Trump, who has demanded that Europe take on more of the burden of its own defense, to become a winner on the world stage.
"They're not going to get to 5% without Trump. So he sees it as a big win, and it is," said one administration official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the president's views.
Trump intends to deliver a speech on Wednesday after the summit, announcing a new spending commitment and his own catalytic role. But Trump's victory will not prevent him from pressuring countries to do even more and faster, which may prove difficult for some alliance members.
Spain, the NATO member with the lowest defense spending, is asking for an exception to the new commitment, and there are wide disagreements about the date by which this spending commitment should be met.
"They're thinking of timelines that are, frankly, decades away. Trump is probably thinking of timelines by the end of this decade, if not sooner. That's when, I think, the summit could fail," said Ivo Daalder, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama.
While NATO allies differ on the details of the security commitment, there is broad agreement on the paramount importance of keeping Trump satisfied and maintaining a united front in The Hague, given that Russia's war in Ukraine is far from over and America's foreign policy attention is increasingly shifting to Asia and the Middle East.
To achieve this goal, summit organizers simplified the meeting, shortening the typical two-day meeting to 24 hours and focusing it on Trump's promise, which was agreed upon in advance, and almost nothing else.
"He has to get credit for this 5% — that's why we are holding the summit. Everything else is simplified to minimize risk," said one European defense official, granted anonymity to speak frankly about private government-level conversations.
How realistic are Trump's demands
Trump has long complained that the U.S. bears too much of the cost of defending the world, and has pushed not only NATO members to increase their defense budgets. The White House administration is also pressing Japan, a non-NATO ally seeking a new trade deal with Washington, to significantly increase its defense spending, with the Pentagon calling the 5% benchmark a new "global standard."
This is a standard that many countries may find difficult to achieve. Spain, far from the Alliance's eastern flank, has been difficult to convince, as have other smaller countries such as Italy and Belgium, which have not yet reached the 2% level adopted by the Alliance in 2014.
Even the UK, one of Europe's largest military powers, pulled out of the 2032 deadline. Laying out a plan to increase defense spending, Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised that the UK would reach 2.5 percent by 2027. He also expressed confidence in reaching 3% no later than 2034.
Additions
The Trump administration is demanding that Asian allies, including South Korea, spend up to 5% of GDP on defense. This could lead to a significant increase in defense budgets and disputes over their military presence.