Political scientist on presidential elections in Poland: they will affect Ukraine, and not in the most positive way
Kyiv • UNN
The presidential elections in Poland may influence relations with Ukraine, especially regarding the Volhynia tragedy and support for EU accession. Various scenarios are being considered depending on the winner.
Presidential elections in Poland will begin on May 18. Political scientist Anton Maleev told a journalist of UNN how they will affect Ukraine and named the main contenders for the post of leader.
When do the presidential elections begin in Poland?
Presidential elections will begin in Poland on May 18. The first round will take place on Sunday. No later than the beginning of June, after the second round, Poland will have a new head of state.
Main candidates
Currently, the main contenders for the presidency are:
- Karol Nawrocki - Law and Justice Party (PiS);
- Rafal Trzaskowski - Mayor of Warsaw and representative of the "Civic Coalition";
- Slawomir Mentzen - the right-wing party "Confederation".
Political scientist Anton Maleev noted that Trzaskowski is the main contender for victory in the elections.
Rafal Trzaskowski is a candidate from conditionally liberal forces, who is the main contender for victory. The second is his competitor Nawrocki from the conservative forces, and he has a chance in the second round, at least to catch up with Trzaskowski, and in fact he has a chance to win, depending on the mobilization of voters. And the third candidate is Mentzen. He is a candidate from the "Confederation", who poses no threat to either one or the other. However, he shows a clear trend in Europe that right-wing radical forces are gaining momentum, votes
The political scientist noted that if five years ago Mentzen could count on 5% of the vote, now it is already 20%. The trend of growth of right-wing radical forces is observed in Romania, the Czech Republic, and Germany.
"Right-wing radical forces are gaining momentum," Maleev added.
Maleev noted that the main rhetoric of Trzaskowski and his main competitor Nawrocki is, in principle, pro-Ukrainian.
Trzaskowski has a slightly larger one, Nawrocki has a slightly smaller one. They both profess that Putin is a criminal, he must be condemned, more help to Ukraine, make every effort to drag Ukraine into the European Union. Only Trzaskowski is more liberal in this, he is more like (German Chancellor - ed.) Merz in his courage and balance, and Nawrocki is Duda number two. He will not differ much from the current policy of the current president
Impact on Ukraine
Maleev stressed that the presidential elections in Poland will definitely affect Ukraine, no matter who the Poles elect, and not in the most positive way.
First of all, despite their (Nawrocki and Trzaskowski - ed.) attitude to the specific situation in which Ukraine finds itself and this war, in fact, both candidates profess the idea that Ukraine must apologize for the Volyn tragedy. And they will both demand this from Ukraine before joining the European Union, we simply cannot avoid this topic, in principle, in any way. It must be agreed, it must be recorded, it must be agreed to by the Polish people and the current Polish government. And they will set it as a condition
The second important focus, according to the political scientist, is that Trzaskowski is still more supportive of providing Ukraine with more funding and weapons, unlike Nawrocki.
Nawrocki is for general condemnation, but: let's direct all resources to our own defense, rather than helping Ukraine. This is a fundamental difference between these two candidates
Maleev also noted that the system of government in Poland is slightly different from the Ukrainian one.
In reality, they have roughly equal powers between the president and the Sejm. If the government belongs to one political camp and the president to another, this creates very significant turbulence in terms of making important decisions for society. Therefore, if there is a candidate from the liberal forces (Trzaskowski - ed.), there will be a carte blanche for the current Cabinet of Ministers of Poland and there will definitely be more help to Ukraine, but if Nawrocki is president, there will be significant turbulence that most of the help to Ukraine will not be approved
The topic of the Volyn tragedy and Ukraine's accession to the EU
Maleev noted that Ukraine really wants to join the European Union as soon as possible, as this is, at a minimum, an increase in funding for weapons, and outside the war - an increase in funding for reconstruction.
For us, this is logical for the sake of self-preservation. The European Commission is well aware that its future is with Ukraine and Ukraine must be a member of the European Union. Time is actually key here, because if we assume a situation where there will be some kind of freezing along the line of contact with the enemy, there will be no peace, then the next hot phase will be with the participation of the EU. In this case, it is easier to have one single front than to divide your military power between Ukraine and Europe
The political scientist stressed that sticking sticks in the wheels from Hungary, Slovakia and even Poland regarding Ukraine's accession to the European Union is a very serious obstacle.
That is, instead of speeding up the accession to the European Union, they will raise all their painful issues in order to resolve them here on the shore. For us, as a society, many of these issues will be a really big problem, because I am not entirely sure that, for example, the public will agree with public apologies for the Volyn tragedy, because after all, Ukrainians were also killed there, and for some reason no one apologizes
According to the political scientist, Ukrainians will be forced to choose whether they are for a quick accession to the EU, or Ukraine's accession is delayed.
We, as a society, will have to choose whether we are for a quick accession to the European Union, and then we agree to all the ultimatums that are placed on us, and these will literally be ultimatums, or we fight, gnaw, try to change our minds, but this simply delays Ukraine's accession to the European Union for years, if not decades
The political scientist also assessed the chances that a mutual understanding will be found regarding the Volyn tragedy.
I would really like to, but I'm not sure, unfortunately. So far, the question is being raised unilaterally. The Polish-Ukrainian commission has already worked several times to resolve all these issues, and unfortunately, all their work ended exactly at the moment when the Poles issued an ultimatum that: you apologize, and then we'll see. There was no shift. A striking example is the reburial of graves and the honoring of memorial points. Ukrainians are trying to fully comply with their legislation and help, not to interfere with the Poles in conducting their historical expertise. At the same time, our monuments in Poland are being desecrated and Poland is not reacting to these challenges in any way
Therefore, the expert noted that the situation with Poland may be such that publicly and in words they will declare that they want Ukraine to be in the European Union, but first they will ask to apologize for the Volyn tragedy.
Statements by Trzaskowski and Nawrocki about Ukraine
According to PAP, Trzaskowski, who is leading in opinion polls during the election debates on Monday, said that Russia is a threat and Ukraine should be a buffer zone.
He stressed that peace in Ukraine must be on fair terms, which, he added, needs to be explained to US President Donald Trump.
"Don't take pictures with him, but talk to him about it in detail," he said, referring to Karol Nawrocki's meeting at the White House. According to Trzaskowski, Vladimir Putin only understands the language of force, so Poland must arm itself.
Nawrocki said during these debates that it is in Poland's interest for peace to be lasting, just and not delayed by war. He added that it is important for Poland to participate in negotiations on the international stage. He also stated that Poland should not be too optimistic about Ukraine's accession to the EU or NATO.
In January, Karol Nawrocki spoke out against inviting Ukraine to the EU and NATO because of the Volyn tragedy.
Volyn tragedy
In January, it was reported that Ukraine and Poland exchanged lists of places to search for and exhume the remains of "mutual historical conflicts."
Karolina Romanowska, head of the Polish-Ukrainian Reconciliation Society, reported that Ukraine had given its consent to conduct search operations for Polish victims of the Volyn tragedy in the village of Uhly, Rivne region.
Deputy Minister of Culture of Ukraine Andriy Nadjos reported at the beginning of May that during search operations at the site of the former village of Puzhnyky in the Ternopil region, a Polish-Ukrainian expedition found the remains of more than 30 people.
External interference
At the beginning of May, the Minister of Digitalization of the country, Krzysztof Gawkowski, stated that Poland is facing an unprecedented attempt by Russia to interfere in its presidential elections.
In March, Warsaw stated that the Polish Space Agency had been cyberattacked.
