Political scientist explains why Russia keeps Ukraine under constant shelling

Russia may continue massive attacks and prolonged air-raid alerts in Ukraine. Journalist Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi, a political scientist specializing in international affairs, told a UNN journalist more about how long the Russian Federation's new tactics may last and why the escalation is taking place now.

Details

According to the expert's assessment, Russia has stocks of missiles and drones, continues to produce them, and additionally receives weapons from other countries. Therefore, it is still too early to talk about the rapid end of the current wave of attacks. However, certain periods of calm are possible.

I think that in the coming days, perhaps weeks, the Russian Federation will be able to do this, because it cannot be ruled out that it has accumulated a certain number of munitions, missiles, drones, and so on. And it is terrorizing [Ukraine] for as long as it can. I do not rule out that this could continue right up until the so-called parliamentary "elections" in Russia

Moscow is trying to pressure Ukrainians

The expert notes that Russia's capabilities are not limited to accumulated stockpiles. Instead, Moscow continues to produce missiles and drones and also receives certain types of weapons from abroad. According to him, this makes it possible to maintain the strikes even after using some of the accumulated resources.

In addition to the stockpiles they have, there is also the production of missiles, drones, and other capabilities. Russia imports weapons, including those same ballistic missiles. We can mention North Korea here. And therefore, this means that it has additional capabilities to strike Ukraine and carry out massive strikes

According to the political scientist, the duration and intensity of the attacks may vary depending on Russia's available resources. However, in his opinion, it is unlikely that they can be stopped completely in the near future. He also draws attention to Russia's preparations for the autumn-winter period.

There may be certain periods of calm if, for example, Russia really does not have enough jet-powered "Shaheds" or something else. Although, judging by the information available, they currently have enough options to continue this terror. In addition, we must also understand that Russia is preparing for the autumn-winter period

In addition to their military objective, the strikes also have a psychological dimension, in the expert's view.

I think that the more or less obvious reasons are that Putin wants to break the Ukrainians, to force them to agree to the ceasefire terms that we all know about, first and foremost the territorial aspects. Evidently, it is important for him to gain control over all of Donetsk and Luhansk regions

Also, according to Zhelikhovskyi, the current attacks are causing Ukraine not only human losses, unfortunately, but also economic damage. This concerns the impact on businesses, the energy sector, and the operation of various life-support systems.

Here, it is worth being patient, and the state of Ukraine needs to do everything possible to defend itself more effectively against such attacks, because they cause significant damage. First, this is a threat to human lives and health, and second, it is material damage to businesses, the Ukrainian economy, the energy sector, and so on

The attacks may be linked to the "elections" in Russia

The political scientist separately draws attention to another possible political calculation by the Kremlin. In his opinion, Putin may be interested in Ukraine carrying out large-scale retaliatory strikes against major Russian cities ahead of the so-called "elections" to the State Duma, so that he could then use this in Russian propaganda.

Putin, I think, would like Ukrainians to strike back, especially if we are talking about large Russian cities such as Moscow, St. Petersburg, and some others. And in this way he wants to demonstrate to his citizens: look, the Ukrainians are enraged at us; they are killing and destroying

In the expert's opinion, the Kremlin may use such strikes to accuse Ukraine of escalation and increase support for the pro-government party.

Support for "United Russia" would mean that citizens were thereby also voting for tougher measures against Ukraine, including new mobilization measures. And thus, in effect, the elections would turn into a kind of referendum for Russians—whether they support the war or not

The political scientist believes that the number of attacks may fluctuate, but air raid alerts will most likely remain regular. This particularly concerns Kyiv and the capital region.

I think that it may, but not by very much; after all, there are also certain limitations on these capabilities in Russia. That is, they may be either in the quantity they currently have, or increase or decrease slightly, but the regularity may continue

The expert assumes that the current situation may continue until the "elections" in Russia, that is, until September 20.

There will not be a single day without an alert, at least in Kyiv and some other cities. And one way or another, these attacks will be serious and have consequences. This may continue at least until the "elections" to the State Duma, and afterward it will become clear from the situation what Putin will want to do

Putin’s talks with Witkoff and Kushner have ended: they lasted more than three hours05.09.26, 23:31 • 13183 views