OPEC+ to complete large oil production cuts in September - Reuters

Member countries of the OPEC+ oil alliance are preparing to approve another significant increase in oil production in September, thus completing both the phased unwinding of voluntary cuts by eight group members and the transition of the United Arab Emirates to a larger quota. Five sources familiar with the negotiations told Reuters, as reported by UNN.

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OPEC+, which accounts for almost half of global oil production, has been restraining supply for several years to stabilize the market. However, this year the alliance has radically changed course, focusing on regaining market share, including through calls from US President Joe Biden to increase production to curb gasoline prices.

The unwinding of cuts began in April with an increase in production of 138,000 barrels per day. In May, June, and July, the increase was 411,000 barrels per month, despite falling oil prices. On Saturday, the alliance approved another increase — by 548,000 b/d in August.

According to sources, an additional increase of 550,000 b/d in September is expected to be approved during the meeting on August 3. This will mean a full return to the market of 2.17 million b/d of production, which was previously voluntarily cut by countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria.

In addition, the UAE will complete the increase of its own quota by an additional 300,000 b/d, after many years of efforts to revise it. Abu Dhabi has repeatedly stated that it has invested heavily in infrastructure to be able to produce more than 4 million b/d, while the previous quota was only about 3 million b/d.

Against the backdrop of accelerating the process of unwinding restrictions, OPEC+ is effectively returning to its previously planned schedule. In particular, the UAE's quota is planned to be brought to the updated level by September 2025, although this was previously postponed until September 2026.

Since the group decided to accelerate the process of unwinding restrictions, the UAE effectively benefits by being able to increase production earlier.

The total increase in production from April to September will be 2.47 million b/d, or almost 2.5% of global demand.

It is expected that in September, Saudi Arabia will reach a production level of about 10 million b/d, and the UAE — 3.375 million b/d.

At the same time, despite the gradual lifting of some restrictions, OPEC+ still has separate cuts of 3.66 million b/d — of which 1.66 million b/d are voluntary, and the rest are distributed among all participants. These restrictions will remain in effect until the end of 2026.

Oil prices fall after unexpected OPEC+ production increase07.07.25, 09:10 • 1947 views