Demchenko on Russia's exercises with Belarus: according to forecasts, Russia will not be able to deploy a sufficiently large group, but one should not relax
Kyiv • UNN
Border guards predict a smaller number of Russian troops in joint exercises in Belarus, but do not rule out provocations on the border. Ukraine is strengthening engineering and fortifications along the border with Belarus.
According to border guards' forecasts, Russia will not be able to deploy a sufficiently large group during joint exercises in Belarus. However, one cannot relax, in particular, provocations on the border with Ukraine are not excluded. This was announced by the spokesman for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, Andriy Demchenko, during a briefing on Wednesday, as reported by a UNN correspondent.
Details
Demchenko reminded that the active phase of joint exercises between Russia and Belarus is scheduled to take place from September 12 to 16.
"I want to reassure you somewhat, to note that as of now, there are no changes in the situation along the border. In fact, we still do not record that any group has already been formed on the territory of Belarus that would pose a threat to our country, and it would be located near our border, or such a formation would be created from various components. This applies to units of the Belarusian army, units of the Russian army," Demchenko said.
However, he noted that the risk for Ukraine during the exercises will increase.
"However, these exercises, which are to take place, in particular, on the territory of Belarus, some of them will take place on the territory of the Russian Federation, the risk and threat to our country will increase at this time. Especially, if we talk, and in fact we are monitoring this, how many of its forces and means Russia will ultimately involve on the territory of Belarus in the first place," Demchenko said.
Demchenko noted that as of now, it is not observed that Russia has already transferred a sufficiently large number of its forces and means to the territory of Belarus.
Of course, they are already present there, but these are usually vehicles, a small part of armored vehicles, mostly automotive. As for personnel, it is also a small number. As I noted, the active phase will take place in September, and it is at this time that it is expected, if we talk about units of the Russian army, that tanks, armored vehicles, and more personnel than there are now will be involved. Our forecasts are that Russia will still not be able to involve a sufficiently large personnel group there.
For example, according to him, in 2022 and 2023, Russia kept about 10-12 thousand personnel on the territory of Belarus.
"During these exercises (in 2025 - ed.), the number of Russian personnel in Belarus will be significantly smaller. But one cannot relax, it is necessary to do everything to obtain the necessary information for Ukraine regarding Russia's actions during these joint exercises. Because despite, perhaps, an insufficient number for an invasion of Ukrainian territory, provocations or informational escalation are not excluded in order for Ukraine to react accordingly and strengthen this direction with additional forces, thereby transferring forces from other directions," the State Border Guard Service spokesman said.
He emphasized that engineering arrangements and capacity building along the state border continue.
"This includes mining the most dangerous areas and fortification reinforcements along the entire length of the border with Belarus - from Volyn to Chernihiv region," Demchenko added.
Addition
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, in the context of the planned military exercises on the territory of Belarus, warned Minsk against ill-considered provocations and advised not to approach the borders of Ukraine.
Spokesman for the State Border Guard Service Andriy Demchenko stated that during the active phase of joint exercises between Russia and Belarus, which are scheduled for September on the territory of Belarus, the risk for Ukraine may increase, and that no strike group is currently being formed in Belarus.
At the same time, given the possible threats near the borders, Germany, for example, relocated five Eurofighter fighters and 150 military personnel to Poland.