What to expect from the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague
Kyiv • UNN
At the NATO summit in The Hague, an increase in defense spending to 5% of GDP is being discussed, causing controversy among member states. Ukraine remains on the periphery, and its Euro-Atlantic integration is effectively frozen due to the position of Trump and Germany.
Today in The Hague, Netherlands, the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) summit begins, during which the issue of raising the spending level of all member countries to 5% of GDP will be considered. Will European countries reach an agreement with US President Donald Trump, and should Ukraine expect anything from the results of this meeting, a journalist from UNN found out.
Ukraine and NATO
In fact, Ukraine remains on the periphery. There was only a place for Volodymyr Zelensky during the traditional dinner. If this trend continues, he may not be invited to the next summit at all. Everyone understands very well who is the master of NATO. The master of NATO is the one who actually maintains the organization. 80% of NATO's expenses are the United States of America
The political scientist emphasized that for other members of the Alliance, Trump's position is obvious. The head of the White House has effectively vetoed Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration.
Regarding further actions for Ukraine's accession to NATO and Euro-Atlantic integration, everyone clearly sees Trump's de facto veto. Germany also did not take any radical steps to change its position. Back in 2008, when Ukraine was half a step away from receiving a Membership Action Plan for NATO, it was the position of Germany and France that became the main obstacle to Ukraine actually receiving that document, which is essentially a roadmap for future NATO membership
According to the expert, the actions of Ukraine's partners in NATO remained at the level of declarations. They never reached real actions.
"Despite this policy of waiting for strong signals, we do not see it moving from declarations to practical steps. The summit in The Hague effectively confirms the fact that Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration is essentially frozen," Zolotaryov summarized.
What to expect from the NATO summit
Andriy Zolotaryov also explained that among NATO countries, some have already come very close to fulfilling Trump's requirement for defense industry spending of 5% of GDP. This particularly applies to Poland, which, despite regular changes in the highest government structures, has always adhered to this course.
"The first country among European countries that began to approach such expenditures closely is Poland. What we see now is that no European NATO country is conducting such a large-scale program for the modernization of its armed forces as Poland, which has diversified its arms purchases from South Korea, the United States, and Germany. And this has become a consistent policy that does not change regardless of the name of the new president," the political scientist said.
On the other hand, according to Zolotaryov, such expenditures are too serious a challenge for the social and political life of some other member countries of the Alliance. This could lead to a strengthening of the position of far-right forces. For example, the pro-Russian "Alternative for Germany."
For other countries that are currently living in a state of very acute budget deficit, this is a policy that can lead to undesirable social and political consequences. For example, if we take Germany, 5% of GDP would be almost 40% of budget expenditures. This could end with the victory of "Alternative for Germany" in the elections
A similar situation is observed in Great Britain, where the "Reform Party" could simply break the two-party system that has traditionally taken root in the United Kingdom.
"For Great Britain, this would also be almost 100% destruction of the two-party system, where conservatives and labor, replacing each other, ensure a certain political stability. In fact, Nigel Farage's "Reform Party" is already breathing down the necks of both Labour and Conservatives. This is almost a guarantee that if Great Britain significantly increases military spending, it will lead to such political consequences," the political scientist explained.
Summing up, Zolotaryov expressed the opinion that there would be a certain compromise. European countries would increase their GDP spending, but not as high as Trump currently demands.
That is why there will be some resistance to such intentions. There will be no absolute approval. But the United States will insist on this. Most likely there will be some compromise, that yes, it will increase, but not to the control figure that Trump demands
Alarming signals ahead of the NATO summit
Reuters reports that Spain has not agreed to raise its spending to the stated 5%. The country's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez agreed to an exemption from the requirement to spend 5% of GDP on defense. In particular, he called it "disproportionate and unnecessary." According to him, Spain can fulfill its obligations by spending 2.1% of GDP. Previously, it had the lowest share of defense spending in the Alliance - 1.28% of GDP last year.
Another alarming signal was the statement by Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, who, as reported by DW, expressed doubts about the advisability of the continued existence of the North Atlantic Alliance on the eve of the NATO summit. He emphasized the need to adapt to changed conditions.
Crosetto believes that "times have changed" and called on NATO to cooperate with the Global South, also noting the decreasing influence of the European Union.
"The US and the EU are no longer the center of the world. NATO must adapt to changed conditions," the Italian minister emphasized.
The next two days could seriously impact the future of the North Atlantic Alliance, fundamentally changing its strategy and perception in the world. Which of the possible scenarios will be realized – we may find out very soon.
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