The price of energy insurance: what Ukraine pays for electricity imports from Europe

Increased electricity imports may not help Ukraine overcome the consequences of blackouts caused by missile and drone attacks by the Russian Armed Forces in January 2026. At first glance, such a decision may seem an effective way to bring the energy system out of crisis, but in practice, it has many nuances and "pitfalls."

Why one should not rely solely on this point of the "energy plan" of the new head of the relevant ministry, Denys Shmyhal, was explained in a comment to UNN by Yuriy Korolchuk, co-founder of the Institute of Energy Strategies and expert.

Increased electricity imports from the EU are again presented as a technical solution to overcome the deficit. But in reality, it is always about money, redistribution of risks, and political responsibility.

Yuriy Korolchuk explains: currently, Ukraine is facing not only the price of electricity but also a physical "ceiling." The maximum possible import volume is estimated at approximately 2.45 GW. However, the main volumes occur during night hours when the price on European markets is lower and when it is technically easier to "pick up" the system. During the day, imports are traditionally lower due to the higher price: according to estimates, during the daytime, this can be about 30% of night volumes.

To illustrate his point, the expert gives a specific example:

There is a capacity that we can import at most. But at night, we choose up to a thousand MW from Slovakia, for example. That is, 30 million kWh per day. During the day, as even officially stated, (it is about, — ed.) approximately 30 percent, that is, we take 10 million kWh.

Another important nuance to consider is the understanding that the question of how imports will affect the budget comes down to the fact that the state does not publicly disclose the full price of such purchases and the details of contracts. Formally, it can go through various channels: commercial purchases, emergency aid, etc. But without transparent data, society and the market see the consequences post-factum, when they are already "sewn" into the financial results of companies, compensations, debts, or tariff decisions.

No one has yet revealed to us how much we pay for all this. This means not the population, but the state. Because private business does not buy much, in fact.

Moreover, the formula "cheap electricity from Europe" does not work as a universal one, although the Government often emphasizes precisely this. Yes, electricity imported from EU countries can be economically beneficial. But only at specific hours and in specific countries.

(We, — ed.) are often given France as an example. They say that electricity there is inexpensive. However, let's say, it is not very indicative. There are indeed periods of relatively low prices due to nuclear generation, but Ukraine's imports are not tied to consistently buying at these hours.

The energy expert adds that the discussed average import price benchmark is approximately 160-170 euros per MWh. And it is the average price that includes commercial purchases, emergency aid, which is also paid for, and purchases at different periods. That is, it is not guaranteed to be cheaper than internal long-term contracts in Ukraine.

It is also necessary to take into account the fact that the main buyer of large volumes of imported electricity is not the population and not even private business. The private sector buys, but usually within its economy: if it imports, it often resells on the market, and the end consumer still pays the market price. The main burden or the main instrument of state policy here, as a rule, are state-owned companies.

Given that "Ukrzaliznytsia," "Naftogaz," and "Ukroboronprom" were instructed to urgently ensure the purchase of imported electricity in volumes of at least 50% of their own consumption, the transition to imports means two things:

• they actually refuse part of internal contracts or reduce their volume;
• they buy more expensively if the import price at the corresponding hours exceeds their average internal purchase price.

For now, according to the expert, the scenario of "catastrophic losses" seems less likely for two reasons.

First: the volume of imports is limited. Even if one wanted to increase it, the physical system is already close to the maximum cross-section. That is, a sharp jump at the expense of imports will not work.

Second: imports are not uniform. The largest volumes occur at night, where the price is usually lower. On long-term contracts (if concluded), in certain periods, the price can theoretically be significantly lowered: conditionally, in winter it can be about 110 euros per MWh, and in summer, 70-90 euros per MWh. But this can only be done when there is access to such products, the correct contract structure, and when the market provides such conditions. Purchases from the exchange "at the moment," especially in stressful periods, are usually more expensive.

That is why increasing electricity imports from the EU is not an automatic saving for the country. It is a tool for stabilizing the system with a high price during deficit hours and with limited opportunities for growth. The direct effect on the budget may be unclear due to the opacity of purchases, but the financial burden will most likely partially fall on state-owned companies as large consumers. Significant losses are possible, but the scale is limited by the physical "ceiling" of imports and the structure of consumption.