Putin knows he's provoking Trump, but he doesn't care - Telegraph
Kyiv • UNN
Putin is deliberately provoking Trump, counting on his refusal to negotiate. Analyst Rebekah Koffler reveals the Kremlin's tactics.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin understands that he is provoking US President Donald Trump. The most dangerous thing is that he doesn't care. Putin probably expects Trump to abandon negotiations or surrender and agree to all his demands. This is stated in an article by strategic military intelligence analyst Rebekah Koffler for The Telegraph, writes UNN.
Details
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump, as indicated, seemed to express a veiled threat to Vladimir Putin. "Interesting times ahead!!!" he wrote in a Truth Social post, noting that "it is very difficult, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking the invading country."
"Was he encouraging Ukrainians to attack Russian soil? It certainly seems possible," Koffler commented on Trump's post.
The Telegraph article notes that Trump has strong reasons to be angry with Putin again, given that his recent diplomatic blitzkrieg - hosting the Russian leader in Alaska, followed by talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and several European leaders in Washington - has not led to any concessions from Moscow regarding a peace agreement with Ukraine.
The analyst indicates that since the negotiations have effectively broken down, as the Kremlin has rejected all proposals from the US, Europe, and Ukraine – a personal meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, NATO security guarantees for Ukraine – the Russian leader must realize that there will come a time when Trump will have to tighten the screws on him.
"After all, Donald is not one to want to look like a loser," the analyst believes.
According to analyst Koffler, Putin most likely took this into account in his calculations.
"He knows he's testing Trump's patience. So what's the Russian leader's plan of action?" Koffler writes.
As an American intelligence analyst specializing in Russia, Koffler assesses that Putin's likely goal is to keep Trump in the game, keep him happy (or at least not angry) for as long as possible, to delay negative consequences (such as secondary sanctions) while he continues a grueling military strategy aimed at forcing Ukraine to capitulate.
"And to manage Trump, Putin, who spent his career in the KGB recruiting and managing spy networks in Germany, may well rely on a combination of mastery in working with intelligence assets, the philosophy of judo, and the concept of Cold War psychological warfare," Koffler writes.
She points out that the interaction between Trump and Putin has followed an "up-and-down" pattern: constructive calls and friendly conversations between them, then Trump's expressions of confidence that peace is just around the corner, then continuous Russian missile strikes on Ukraine, and then Trump's angry posts and ultimatums on social media.
The analyst emphasizes that even after admitting in July that "Putin throws a lot of nonsense at us," who is "always very gracious, but it turns out to be meaningless," Trump gave Putin the opportunity to hold a summit in Alaska, hoping to strike a deal.
"Flattery is one of the techniques used by intelligence agents like Putin to appeal to the vanity of their potential agents. Putin has never spoken negatively about Trump. Instead, he tends to praise Trump's political acumen and personality, describing him as 'smart,' 'experienced,' 'talented,' 'clever,' and 'pragmatic.' In January, Putin stated that he and Trump 'always had businesslike, pragmatic, but also trusting relations,'" analyst Koffler revealed.
She noted that Putin managed to exploit Trump's tendency towards positive thinking, his apparent goal of winning a Nobel Prize, and his sympathy for Russians and Ukrainians dying on the battlefield.
"To buy time, Putin could also try to influence Trump using a technique known as 'reflexive control,' a concept developed to manipulate an opponent's perception of reality. Developed in the 1960s by Soviet mathematician and psychologist Vladimir Lefebvre, the concept of reflexive control is still taught in the Russian General Staff and intelligence services," Koffler wrote.
The analyst noted that while Trump, in her opinion, is intelligent, he can be an excellent target for this technique due to his bias that there is nothing he cannot solve using his "art of the deal," and due to his imagined assumption that Putin's logic is the same as an American's (a gross error that Westerners adhere to). Putin adjusts his actions and words under the guise of interest in a deal and persuasiveness for Trump. In reality, Putin will only agree to a deal on his own terms, the analyst notes.
According to Koffler, to outsmart Trump, Putin may also use his experience in judo, a Japanese martial art that relies more on mental and physical manipulation of the opponent than on brute force. With a black belt in judo, Putin uses judo principles in all aspects of his life, including state governance.
"Judo is not just a sport... it's a philosophy," Putin wrote in his book "First Person," adding that judo is "respect for... your opponent. It's not for the weak."
Koffler noted that Putin, never directly contradicting Trump and alternating friendly contacts with bombing Ukraine, seems to have managed to provoke Trump. When Trump called Putin "absolutely insane" after a recent massive Russian air attack, the Kremlin explained Trump's frustration as "emotional stress," presumably trying to demonstrate Putin's psychological resilience and superiority.
"All three elements of Putin's strategy – judo, reflexive control, and asset management – focus on a deep understanding of the opponent and preparation, which Trump's team seems to lack. At the Alaska summit, Trump had a powerful team, but there seemed to be no one who perfectly understood Putin's mentality and the Russian approach to warfare," the analyst believes.
Instead, according to the analyst, Putin brought with him three experienced operatives, not counting the interpreter – Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev. All of them are almost native English speakers (without an accent) and perfectly understand American politics and its vulnerabilities. Putin himself has a working knowledge of English, is able to correct interpreters in diplomatic circles, and has had brief conversations with Trump without translation.
The analyst noted that Putin almost certainly heard Trump's veiled threat on Thursday and likely planned his next move in advance. To continue the game, he might release some Ukrainian children in response to a letter from US First Lady Melania Trump. Or he might find another delaying tactic, the analyst indicated.
Putin is likely trying to wear Trump down. Indeed, despite the ultimatums, Russia has not yet received any blow from Trump. Putin's likely goal is for Trump to abandon negotiations or surrender and agree to all his demands. Trump, of course, does not have to play Putin's game. He could use his secret weapon – the ability to crash the Russian economy – and expose the Kremlin's bluff. But that depends on how well Trump's team has prepared
Reference
The author of the article, Rebekah Koffler, is a strategic military intelligence analyst who previously worked at the US Defense Intelligence Agency.