Agreement between Israel and Hamas: will the arrangement fail

Agreement between Israel and Hamas: will the arrangement fail

Kyiv  •  UNN

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There is a risk that the war in Gaza will continue. The signed ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas may come into force only on Monday. The Israeli government will meet only on Saturday evening to vote on the agreement.

Negotiations between Israel and the Hamas group on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip have reached the home stretch. On January 16, all parties signed the document, having made final changes to the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip. However, the process of its implementation is under threat

UNN collected the details of the latest events and analyzed what will happen next together with an expert.

According to Israeli media reports, under the agreement, Hamas and allied militant groups must release 33 Israeli hostages held in Gaza after the October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks. In return, Israel must release hundreds of Palestinians from prison. It is expected that once the agreement comes into force, it will allow some civilians to return to northern Gaza, and humanitarian organizations will be able to deliver aid to the destroyed areas.

This could be the first temporary cessation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip in more than a year and only the second since the start of Israel's large-scale military campaign against Hamas.

Failure of agreements: what was the reason

However, a few days after the preliminary agreement, the situation escalated. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Hamas had put forward new demands at the "last minute" that contradicted previous agreements. 

"Hamas is creating a last-minute crisis by violating the agreed terms of the agreement," the Israeli government said in a statement. It also emphasized that the Cabinet of Ministers would not meet to approve the agreement until Hamas abandons its attempts to make changes.

According to Israeli sources, the main controversy concerns the list of Palestinian prisoners to be released under the agreement. Hamas demands guarantees regarding specific individuals, but Israel insists on its own selection criteria. Despite this, negotiations continue.

Israel strikes Gaza, kills Hamas militant

While diplomatic disputes continued, the Israeli army continued operations in the Gaza Strip. On the night of January 16, one of the militants of the Nuhba special unit, Mohammed Hasham Zahedi Abu Ar-Rus, was killed. Israeli intelligence services believe him to be involved in the attack on the Nova music festival on October 7, 2023, during which hundreds of civilians were killed. 

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) also reported strikes on about 50 targets in Gaza. They included weapons depots, rocket launchers, and command posts of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The military emphasized that measures were taken to minimize civilian casualties before the strikes.

What's Next? Truce or new escalation

According to the plan, Israel was supposed to reduce the number of air strikes on Gaza from January 17, and the first hostages were to be released on January 18. However, due to a delay in the approval of documents, the process may be delayed by at least one day.

The Israeli Cabinet of Ministers must officially approve the agreement before it can enter into force. However, there are pitfalls here as well. Under Israeli law, opponents of the deal have the right to petition the Supreme Court within 24 hours. Since many government officials are religious Jews who observe the Sabbath, the Cabinet postponed consideration of the agreement until the evening of January 18. This means that the final decision can only be made on Sunday, and the truce can begin on Monday.

Why did the deal fail? Expert opinion

Political analyst Taras Zahorodniy also believes that the truce remains in question.

Well, it is clear that they have already had many such agreements, and not all of them have been fulfilled, not all of them have been fully implemented. Therefore, it is possible that there will be further destruction of Hamas, because such an agreement in this case cannot be beneficial to Israel. A defeated Hamas will not actually control the territory of Gaza, but will control Israel, which will create risks of new attacks for it. That is why there has been no cessation of hostilities, and further strikes against Hamas are possible

- said Taras Zahorodnyi.

In his opinion, the deal can be concluded when Trump comes to power, because he needs the laurels of a peacemaker, not Biden, who is leaving office.

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Although a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been formally agreed upon, its implementation remains in question. New Hamas demands and bureaucratic procedures of the Israeli government have become a stumbling block.

If a compromise is not found in the coming days, there is a risk that the war in Gaza will continue.