The strongest in a year, but not enough for effect: expert on the 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia

The European Union has officially proposed the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which may be the strongest in the last year and will strike at the manufacturers of Iskanders, hundreds of companies of the Russian military-industrial complex, sectorally ban the import of fuel from Russian oil and, for the first time, will provide an opportunity to reach the captains of the shadow fleet. This was announced on the telethon by the President's Commissioner for Sanctions Policy Vladyslav Vlasiuk, UNN reports.

I would say that this is definitely better than the previous sanctions package. This 18th sanctions package definitely looks better now than it did a few weeks ago. We saw potentially big things. In particular, we expect to see about two hundred companies associated with the Russian military-industrial complex there. It seems to us that many files that we sent played an important role here. And look, there is another sector of the Russian economy. Look, there are Iskander manufacturers there

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The expert stressed that the data and analysis sent by the Ukrainian side could have influenced the preparation of a new package of anti-Russian economic restrictions. One of the key decisions in the draft sanctions is a proposal to ban the import of petroleum products produced from Russian oil. This should close one of the main schemes for circumventing sanctions restrictions.

Plus, what I like is that it causes even such a great interest - it is predicted in the current draft a sectoral ban on the import of petroleum products produced from Russian oil. That is, this whole story is constantly about the fact that Russia sold and sells crude oil to India, where it is processed into diesel fuel and brought to the European Union

Despite the positive changes, the package still has weaknesses, in particular regarding control over the shadow fleet that transports Russian oil in circumvention of sanctions. According to the expert, only 77 tankers have been added to the new list - this is very small compared to the actual volumes.

77 is honestly not that many, firstly. Secondly, in the last month we have had conversations with many key partners in the European Union about what else needs to be sanctioned. And we don't see this in this package. We talked about terminals, ports, and captains of the shadow fleet. And we don't see this, and we don't like it

According to the Commissioner, the key task should be not just pressure, but a systemic deprivation of Russia of petrodollars - the main source of funding for the war.

And why would we want to see the captains of the shadow fleet there, that is, we have 400 tankers under sanctions there. Exactly some part and, in principle, even, I would say, not a small part, but about 50% of tankers. After being sanctioned, they still loaded Russian oil at least once. These tankers have specific individuals - the captains of the shadow fleet. If he is a captain, he knows that he is carrying 

The analyst emphasized that the introduction of personal sanctions against the captains will force them to consider the consequences.

If he is already a captain of a sanctioned tank and then loads oil, we believe that this person should be sanctioned, in particular by the European Union. The British started doing this, we started doing this, and therefore we really wanted to see this, you know, when sanctions concern specific individuals with consequences for these individuals, it completely changes the motivation of training them responsible

At the same time, he admitted that the greatest effect of the sanctions is when the United States joins. Their measures are more accurate and more effective.

Indeed, the American ones are the most effective in terms of the shadow fleet and financial sanctions. Well, a simple comparison is that if we take the number of sanctioned tankers, then those sanctioned by the United States are 211 tankers. Of these, only 30%, and after that, after the sanctions, were placed in the loading of Russian oil. That is, this sanction is the most effective

However, so far the US, despite its effectiveness, is not the leader in terms of the number of restrictions.

And, at the same time, well, we now see that the number of tanks sanctioned by the Americans is less than anyone else. I mean Canada, the USA, Canada, Great Britain, the EU. Therefore, we need to catch up. Or come up with another way to discourage anyone from buying Russian oil, at least above the price cap. And therefore, from this point of view, the Lindsey Graham bill will play its role 

A possible US bill with 500% tariffs for buyers of Russian oil could play the role of secondary sanctions.

A tariff of 500% for buyers of Russian oil is essentially the same as a secondary sanction. It is undesirable enough for the person who wants to buy Russian oil in order not to buy this Russian oil, that is, to discourage it. Therefore, we very much hope that this will indeed be introduced in Congress in the near future and adopted

According to estimates, this mechanism could cost Russia tens of billions.

We believe that this will deprive Russia of approximately 60 billion by the end of the year, like that

The situation in the Russian economy, according to him, is already showing symptoms of exhaustion.

And it, in fact, is no longer growing at all. That is, their economic growth is now approximately 0%

Against this background, the budget deficit is growing, revenues are falling, and imports of critical components are becoming more difficult.

"I know that this may not be so obvious, but even when they receive those components that we then see, feel in Shaheds, Geraniums and missiles, they receive them either less, or of worse quality, or even overpay for them 

Let us remind you

The European Union has officially proposed a new 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which proposes to reduce the ceiling price for Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel, as well as increase pressure on the Russian "shadow fleet" to prevent oil exports, and complicate the work of the Russian banking sector.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaya Kallas said that Russia is escalating the war, so Europe is increasing pressure to make Russia stop.