Suspension of US aid: expert reveals what threatens Ukraine and which programs are under attack

Suspension of US aid: expert reveals what threatens Ukraine and which programs are under attack

Kyiv  •  UNN

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US military support for Ukraine remains unchanged, as the programs have already been approved. Only social, infrastructure, and media projects are under threat, pending the decision of the Federal Court.

Despite the decision of the US President Donald Trump's administration to suspend funding for certain foreign aid programs, military support for Ukraine remains unchanged, as the relevant programs have already been approved. Social, infrastructure, and media projects are currently under threat. A decision by the US Federal Court to overturn the order is expected, but full resumption of funding is unlikely.

Maksym Yali, analyst at the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, answered the question of UNN about the possible consequences of the US blocking military aid to Ukraine and the reality of such a scenario at the moment.

At the moment, in the short term, this option is not possible, because the funding has already been launched, the programs have been approved. By the time, if at all, possible negotiations between Ukraine and Russia begin with the mediation of the United States, which Trump insists on, this will certainly weaken Ukraine's position, and Trump is not interested in this. He can threaten, but de facto, such steps, at least, as I said, before the announced "100 days" of implementation of the so-called Kellogg plan, the deadline that Donald Trump gave to the US special representative for Ukraine, will not happen

- Maksym Yali said.

He added that, of course, this carries significant risks in various areas, primarily social, support for communities in the frontline areas, and veterans. That is, for example, USAID projects were aimed at financing many important areas of public life in Ukraine, including support for vulnerable populations, energy, and many critical areas. 

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after he is provided with information on which critical areas will be left without support, some of them will be financed from the state budget, Yali added.

The public sector, like the media, has already lost funding. Given that the vast majority of Ukrainian media outlets were critically dependent on grant funding after the start of the full-scale invasion, this will directly affect their operations. Perhaps not all of them will be able to survive this period and adapt to the new conditions, especially since the advertising market, as we know, has sharply declined since the start of the full-scale invasion. This has led to a significant dependence of the media sector on external support, and according to some reports, up to 90% of Ukrainian media received funding in this way

- said an analyst at the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security.

Maksym Yali noted that the Federal Court could overturn Donald Trump's order, as activists have already filed lawsuits. The federal court was scheduled to rule on the matter next Monday.

"That is, if those critical projects for public social infrastructure are not found, let's say, they will probably be resumed, but the media, in particular, will hardly be 100% restored. And this will be a significant challenge for many media outlets," Yali said.

He noted that we should wait for the decisions of the Federal Court. In addition,  reducing external funding for these projects was one of Trump's promises.

"Therefore, the likelihood of 100% resumption of funding seems, in my opinion, small... a certain number of them will be frozen and funding will be suspended," added the analyst of the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security.

Previously

Trump, on his first day in office, suspended all US foreign aid programs for 90 days for a review. It is unclear how much money will be affected, as many programs have already been funded by Congress.

Trump has said that in the future, foreign aid will be aligned exclusively with his policies. He has long criticized such spending, although it typically accounts for only 1% of the federal budget, except in emergencies such as arms shipments to Ukraine.

The CPD denied rumors that Trump's decree suspended military aid to Ukraine. In fact, the document refers only to international assistance under the "Development Programs," which include support for UN agencies, peacekeeping initiatives, and refugees. At the same time, Ukraine receives military assistance through the Presidential Drawdown (PDA), Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) programs, which are not covered by this decree.

On January 24, media outlets, including Politico, reported that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suspended most foreign aid grants for 90 days, which could apply to Ukraine. 

However, Voice of America correspondent Ostap Yarysh denied this on social network X ,,  , writing that the Pentagon confirmed to him that the decree does not affect military support. He suggested that Politico might have been referring to the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program, but that the funds earmarked for Ukraine had already been spent.

Later, Zelenskyy denied the information about the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine. He noted that the restrictions apply only to humanitarian and institutional programs in the world, while military aid has not been stopped.

US diplomats have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to exclude Ukraine-related programs from the 90-day foreign aid freeze, citing national security. They insist on the complete exclusion of USAID activities in Ukraine from this directive, which came into effect on January 24.

 In internal correspondence, USAID in Ukraine reported that no decision had been made yet, but that positive signals were coming from Washington. Because of this, the agency has temporarily suspended issuing work stoppage orders.  At the same time, USAID urged staff to evaluate programs and find ways to align them with the Secretary of State's directive to strengthen U.S. security. Ukrainian officials and NGO representatives warn that without Rubio's authorization, key projects, including support for schools, hospitals, and the development of economic and energy infrastructure, could be at risk.

At the same time, USAID Ukraine received an order to stop all projects and spending. 

Later, it became known that the White House Budget Office ordered a temporary suspension of payments and obligations for all federal financial assistance programs, including new grants. This decision does not apply to the Social Security, Medicare, and personal assistance programs. The Trump administration explains that this will allow time to review the programs and align them with the president's priorities. The restrictions also cover foreign aid, non-governmental organizations, DEI, gender initiatives, and the Green New Deal.

On January 28, a federal court temporarily blocked the Trump administration's executive order to suspend funding for foreign aid and grants. The lawsuit was filed by the National Council of Nonprofits, stating that such actions are illegal and threaten social and international initiatives. Trump's decision drew criticism from Democrats, who called it arbitrary, and New York Attorney General Letitia James was also preparing a lawsuit.

Subsequently, the US Secretary of State allowed funding for humanitarian programs to continue during the 90-day moratorium. Pentagon military aid to Ukraine was not affected, but civilian programs were suspended. 

For reference

USAID (United States Agency for International Development) is an American international development agency established in 1961. It operates in 158 countries, supporting the economy, education, energy, humanitarian initiatives, and infrastructure. 

Since the start of the full-scale war, USAID has provided Ukraine with $2.6 billion in humanitarian aid, $5 billion in development assistance, and $30 billion in direct budget support.