Russia expands military units near NATO borders - Lithuanian intelligence

Russia is expanding military units near NATO borders and using the war against Ukraine to train military personnel who could be involved in a future conflict with the Alliance. This is stated in the annual national security threat assessment of Lithuanian intelligence, reports UNN. 

Details

The report notes that Moscow is forming military units on the border with NATO countries, which are gaining combat experience in the war against Ukraine. After the end of hostilities, these forces could become the basis for military groupings in a potential conflict with the Alliance.

According to Lithuanian intelligence, if sanctions are lifted, Russia will be able to prepare for a large-scale war with NATO in approximately six years.

The report emphasizes that Moscow could create an army 30–50% larger than before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as modernize it. At the same time, strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition could be fully restored.

Among Russia's key strategic goals, as stated in the document, remain the complete subjugation of Ukraine and a change in the balance of power in Europe in its favor.

Lithuanian intelligence also indicated that the Russian military industry is actively increasing production, including with the support of China. This allows Moscow to reduce its dependence on Western technologies. After the war, the surplus of weapons could create additional threats to global security.

Lithuania, which borders Russia and its ally Belarus, is a member of NATO and the European Union and one of Ukraine's most active allies.

The report also mentions parcel explosions in 2024, for which Lithuanian officials blamed Russian military intelligence. According to the authors of the report, such attacks could be scaled up and used to harm people.

At the same time, intelligence noted that a series of damages to gas pipelines, energy cables, and telecommunication lines in the Baltic Sea since 2023, although linked to vessels departing from Russian ports, was likely not intentional.

After a series of incidents in the Baltic Sea, countries in the region are on high alert. NATO has already stated its intention to strengthen its military presence in the region.

Recall

Lithuanian prosecutors accused five people of terrorism on behalf of Russian intelligence after an attempt to plant incendiary devices on planes. An international investigation revealed 22 people involved in crimes organized by Russian intelligence.