How the war around Iran threatens food security - Dubai is running out of food supplies
Kyiv • UNN
Due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions in logistics chains, Dubai could run out of fresh produce in just 10 days. This affects global trade and the economy.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has already begun to affect not only energy markets but also global logistics chains. Due to transport disruptions and the closure of part of the airspace in the region, cargo transportation capabilities have sharply decreased. According to experts, in Dubai, supplies of some fresh produce may last only about ten days. This was stated by Stefan Paul, CEO of one of the world's largest logistics operators, Kühne+Nagel, as reported by UNN.
How the war affects global logistics
The escalation of the conflict between Iran and a number of countries in the region has already caused serious disruptions in global transport systems. Part of the airspace in the Middle East remains closed or dangerous for civil aviation, and sea transportation in the Persian Gulf is also complicated by military risks.
According to logistics companies, due to the war, approximately 18% of the world's air cargo capacity remains unavailable. This significantly affects the speed of delivery of goods, especially those with a short shelf life.
The products most affected by such disruptions are those that require regular supplies - fresh vegetables, fruits, dairy products, and other perishable goods.
Why the situation is particularly difficult for Dubai
One of the cities that could be most affected by the disruption of logistics chains is Dubai. Despite its status as one of the world's largest trading centers, the city is almost entirely dependent on food imports.
The region's climate makes large-scale agriculture virtually impossible. As a result, approximately 80-90% of all food products are supplied to the United Arab Emirates from abroad.
Most fresh vegetables and fruits are delivered to the UAE by air transport from Europe, Africa, and Asian countries. That is why disruptions in air transportation can quickly lead to a shortage of certain categories of products.
According to Stefan Paul, the situation is particularly critical for fresh produce.
"Stocks of some categories of goods can decrease quite quickly. This is especially true for fresh produce, such as vegetables or fruits, which have a short shelf life and require constant replenishment," he noted.
Problems with sea transportation
In addition to air transportation, the war also affects maritime logistics. Some transport routes in the Persian Gulf have become less safe due to the risks of attacks or military operations.
Theoretically, food supplies could be partially compensated by land transportation, for example, from Saudi Arabia. However, such opportunities are very limited.
One container ship can carry up to 20,000 containers of goods. It is almost impossible to replace such a volume of cargo by road transport. That is why even short-term disruptions in sea transportation can create serious problems for the region's trading centers.
Impact on global trade
Manufacturers in various parts of the world are already beginning to feel the problems with logistics. Due to disruptions in transport routes, goods are accumulating in producing countries.
According to the head of Kühne+Nagel, this is already happening in Asian countries.
"Goods are accumulating at production sites in Asia - for example, high-tech products from Vietnam or consumer goods from China. But if customers want to sell them, the demand for additional transport capacity increases sharply. Our task is to direct planes where there is demand," Paul explained.
Such delays can affect global supply chains for electronics, consumer goods, and other products manufactured in Asia.
Risks for the food market
Another factor that could affect global food prices is disruptions in the production and supply of fertilizers in the Middle East. The conflict around Iran creates risks for fertilizer exports from the region. If their supply decreases, it could affect the agricultural sector in various countries around the world and lead to an increase in food prices.
Impact on business and tourism
The war in the Middle East is already significantly affecting economic activity in the region. In large shopping centers in Dubai and other cities of the Persian Gulf, some stores of international brands have temporarily closed or are operating with a minimal number of staff.
Problems with air travel also negatively affect the tourism sector. Dubai, which is one of the world's most popular tourist destinations, largely depends on the stable operation of international air travel.
The escalation of the conflict around Iran is gradually turning into a problem not only for the region but also for the global economy. Disruptions in air and sea transportation are already affecting global logistics chains, and individual cities, including Dubai, may quickly experience a shortage of certain goods.
If the conflict drags on, the consequences could spread far beyond the Middle East - from rising food prices to new disruptions in global trade.
Who suffers besides the UAE
In addition to Dubai and the UAE, other countries both in the Middle East region and beyond are already beginning to feel the consequences of the war around Iran.
Persian Gulf Countries
The most vulnerable remain the Persian Gulf states, which are almost entirely dependent on food imports. These include Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. In many of these countries, 80-85% of food products are imported from abroad. Due to disruptions in sea and air transportation, the risks of fresh produce shortages may increase. An additional problem is the dependence on transport routes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the key routes for supplying goods to the region.
Maldives
Economic risks also arise for the Maldives. The island nation depends on imports of fuel, food, and international tourism. Disruptions in air travel, rising fuel costs, and logistics problems can negatively affect the tourism sector and the country's economy.
Europe
European countries are feeling the consequences of the conflict primarily through rising energy and transport service costs. Rising oil and aviation fuel prices affect the cost of transportation, which is gradually reflected in fuel prices, logistics, and some goods.
Asian Countries
Problems also arise in Asian countries that depend on global logistics chains. Due to transport disruptions, some goods are accumulating at production sites, particularly in China and Vietnam. If transport routes remain limited, this could lead to delays in the supply of electronics, equipment, and other consumer goods.
Thus, the war around Iran is already affecting a significant part of the global economy. The greatest risks arise in the Middle East countries, but gradually the consequences of the conflict are beginning to be felt by European, Asian, and other regions that depend on international trade and stable logistics routes.