Putin reads Trump like an "open book": political scientist explains why the memorandum on peace will not make sense
Kyiv • UNN
Trump's proposals regarding trade with Russia are playing to his own interests. The inconsistency of the US and disregard for law could lead to a global war.
The proposal to restore trade between Russia and the West, voiced during Trump's phone conversation with Putin, could be a projection of Trump's own personal interests. Putin is playing on Trump's desire to "earn" and is thus trying to obtain concessions regarding Ukraine. While Putin imposes a "peaceful" memorandum, Russian troops will gain time for a summer offensive, and against the background of inconsistent US policy towards Russia and complete disregard for international law, a global world war may break out. This and other things were told by political scientist, president of the analytical center "Politics" Oleg Lisny to the correspondent of UNN.
The Trump/Putin phone conversation was more productive for Putin
According to the political scientist, Trump has no leverage to influence the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Therefore, yesterday's phone conversation did not actually advance negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
Trump is unable to influence Putin, this is a fact, because this conversation was, in my opinion, more productive for Putin. If we take the illustration of the fact that the whole epic began with a thirty-day ceasefire. And it was Trump's proposal to Ukraine, and Ukraine agreed. And to analyze at what stage the Russian Federation is at the implementation, we will see the number zero. That is, I believe that the effectiveness of this conversation is also close to this mark
Is it possible for the US to withdraw from the negotiation process
Recently, Trump stated that he has conditional "red lines" in his head, going beyond which would mean the termination of the US participation in the negotiation process. According to Lisovy, these "lines" for Trump are the moment when "he will finally realize that he can't do anything."
"That is, now he pretends that he is doing something, and when he realizes that he cannot do anything, this will be the so-called "red line", or "border", call it whatever you want, and then the United States can withdraw from negotiations," - the political scientist noted.
He added that he does not consider the withdrawal of the United States from the negotiations as a manifestation of strength or consistency, or as a result of any systematic work, because most of the decisions of the American leader, according to Lisny, are "an emotional moment".
Therefore, the withdrawal from the negotiation process is unlikely to be dictated by a political or military background. Most likely, this decision will also be made taking into account the emotional state of Donald Trump at the moment when, as the political scientist notes, he decides to shift all responsibility for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to Europe. And Europe, according to Lisovy, has already begun to realize this.
What can cause a global world war
In addition, the inconsistent policy of the United States in these negotiations, in particular regarding the Russian side and the possible withdrawal from the negotiation process, according to Lisny, may lead to more serious consequences, in particular a global war.
Although Trump may also be stopped from withdrawing from negotiations by the desire to receive the Nobel Prize for "peace efforts".
"Such a step will lead to the fact that, firstly, Trump will not receive the Nobel Prize - this is his moment, let's say, and we will get the Third World War. That is, when Trump came out to the public and said that all wars would stop under him... Well, yes, they will stop, because there will be a big global war. And he does not realize this, because what he is doing now with Putin corrupts Putin, because unpunished evil becomes insolent, and we are seeing this now," - said Lisny.
At the same time, in addition to Russia, there are also China, North Korea and Iran, which see that "this is possible" and that International Law does not work, the political scientist emphasizes. He added that Trump personally never referred to international law. Only the Ukrainian side appeals to him.
It always ended badly in history when populists took on the burden or responsibility for stopping something. On the contrary, as a rule, they disgraced everything and turned it into even greater tragedies than before they touched this issue
Why Trump is trying to "buy" peace
"Trump demonstrates a misunderstanding of many things and believes that everything in this world can be bought, and everything in this world can be sold. And everything revolves around money. And Putin needs an empire. Restored empire. He is going not to earn, but to capture. And when he captures, he will have everything in the economic sense," - the political scientist explained the differences in the worldviews of state leaders.
He also added that the very process of "conquest" is more important for Putin. The political scientist compared the Russian dictator to a shark, noting that he "lives while he moves". And to achieve his goal, he, on the contrary, is ready to give a lot, while Trump categorically does not understand such an approach.
Here, a businessman, and not a very good one, and an imperator, whose ideology dominates over earning, came together. He, for example, is ready to lay down the lion's share of his population, the lion's share of his economy, in order to achieve his goal. He doesn't want to earn, he doesn't say (to the Russians - ed.) that I will earn for you. He says: "I will return to you the greatness of the empire
According to the political scientist, the fact that Trump behaves like a businessman is his flaw in the current situation. Because business and geopolitical processes are incompatible and the latter cannot be resolved purely from a business point of view. In fact, that is why Trump has no "successful cases" in terms of stopping conflicts outside the United States, except for the recent Middle East tour.
Therefore, the proposal, which during the telephone negotiations was supposed to sound from Trump's lips to Putin regarding the restoration of Russia's trade relations with the world, was more likely Trump's projection. That is, he himself would be interested in such a proposal, so he could be sure that it should also interest the President of the Russian Federation.
"Trump offers what he needs. That is, he needs to earn, and Putin sees this and plays along. He reads Trump very well. I don't know what kind of KGB officer he was, but he is a pretty good politician who reads his counterparty and prepares for communication. He tells him: "Do you want to earn? I will give you the opportunity to earn, just give me Ukraine. And that's it. And I have no questions. Give me part of Europe, let's bring everything back, you will earn, no questions," - the political scientist explains the possible vector of Putin's negotiations with Trump.
That is why, according to Lisny, the Russian side throws ideas to Trump through other officials on how to earn money. And Trump believes that if the Russian side offers all kinds of business agreements, then they, in turn, are interested in money. So, in the negotiations, you need to enter from this side. However, there "is not a trader there, there is an emperor standing", Lisny notes.
Memorandum on peace between Ukraine and Russia
According to Lisny, when President Zelenskyy spoke to the press yesterday, he said one thing that makes it clear what will happen to the memorandum. If there are requirements in the document or in the negotiation process that are not realistic from the very beginning, it loses its meaning. At the same time, according to the President, we will not give up any of our territory voluntarily.
What we temporarily lost in the course of the fighting is one thing, but we will not liberate the four regions the way they want. That is, when Russia puts forward such a condition in any document, it is not about peace. And it loses its meaning. I admit that the memorandum will contain everything that was in Istanbul, this or a new similar spill
Of course, the Ukrainian side does not need such a memorandum. However, according to the political scientist, Putin needs it very much. In particular, this will give Russia time to win.
"Why does Putin need a memorandum? Elementary. He believes that he has a summer campaign, for which he will be able to put us on our knees. And he needs time. In the Trump-Putin conversation, Putin won a tactical victory and advantage. He won time. There will be no United States sanctions. I am almost 100% sure of this. As long as they write and agree on this memorandum," - says Lisny.
And the second point is that the main thing in Putin's statement after the conversation with Trump was not that a memorandum would be made, but that "the root cause of the war must be eliminated."
That is, if we take the scale, we talked, talked and came to the mark of zero. That is the situation. I think everyone realizes this. And here the ball is now on our side and on the side of Europe. That is, we need to do something. Yes, as if the Americans have already left. I will say cynically, but this is the data of the situation. They (the Americans - ed.) will not do anything that we need. Here I will say even more emotionally. The main thing is that it does not get worse, that they do not ban the military component. So that they do not ban the option to buy weapons for us and our partners
According to the political scientist, this is a very important nuance for Ukraine now, because the only guarantee of security today is the Ukrainian army. Everyone else is partners.
"I always say that Russia has allies, and Ukraine only has partners. Because an ally is someone who stands next to you and fights. Russia has North Korea, it is fighting, it is an ally. We have partners who help us, of course, but together with us, I do not take volunteers, regular troops do not fight. Therefore, the situation is very difficult, but I think that everyone, except the United States, approaches it realistically," - he summarized.
Let's remind
Yesterday, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump, which lasted more than 2 hours.
After talking with Trump Putin said that Moscow is ready for a memorandum on peace and announced the terms for an agreement with Ukraine. And Trump announced "some progress" after a telephone conversation with Putin.
