Putin claimed the capture of 6,500 sq km of Ukraine, but the Russian army’s actual gains are 45 times smaller – ISW
Kyiv • UNN
Putin claimed that Russia had captured 6,500 km² of Ukraine. ISW estimated the net increase in occupied territories over nine months at 144.51 km².
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin stated that since the beginning of 2026, the Russian army has allegedly captured 6,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and 310 settlements. However, according to calculations by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the net territorial gains of Russian forces from January through September amounted to only 144.51 square kilometers. The Moscow Times reports this, UNN writes.
Details
According to Putin, slightly more than 10% of Donetsk Oblast and 16.5% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast allegedly remain under Ukrainian control, while Luhansk Oblast is supposedly fully occupied by Russia.
At the same time, ISW analysts present a different picture of the fighting. In January, Russian forces advanced by 318.54 square kilometers, in February by 122.73 square kilometers, and in March by just 23.04 square kilometers. However, in April and May, Russia lost control of 397 square kilometers of territory.
Analysts accuse the Kremlin of exaggerating military successes
From June through August, the Russian army again made limited advances, but in September it lost another 80.81 square kilometers. Thus, over nine months, the net increase in occupied territory amounted to 144.51 square kilometers—approximately 45 times less than the figure cited by Putin.
The ISW believes that the Kremlin is deliberately exaggerating its successes on the front in an attempt to create the impression of Russia's inevitable victory and influence the decisions of Ukraine's Western partners.
At the same time, even the limited advances have been accompanied by significant losses. According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), from the beginning of the full-scale invasion through June 2026, the Russian army lost approximately 1.4 million service members killed and wounded, including at least 450,000 killed.
According to Bloomberg, citing a NATO official, Russian military losses exceeded 50,000 personnel in September alone, of whom approximately 28,000 were killed.
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