NBU worsened its forecast for Ukraine's economy: the main reasons are energy deficit and shelling of the gas production system

The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth downwards – from 2.1% to 1.9%. The main reasons are the energy deficit caused by Russian shelling and the shelling of the gas production system. This was stated by NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi during a briefing, as reported by UNN.

Two key factors influenced the revision of the economic growth forecast, and both are related to the intensification of shelling and the destruction of the energy system. First, this is a corresponding increase in the energy deficit. According to our forecast, it will increase to 1.3% in 2025, which will accordingly affect the reduction of economic growth rates by 0.1 percentage points. Also, the destruction of the system and the damage caused by shelling to the gas production system, which also has a negative impact. These are two key factors that caused the NBU to revise the economic growth rates for this year accordingly.

The NBU Governor noted that in the third quarter of 2025, economic growth, according to NBU estimates, accelerated due to the activation of early crop harvesting, stable consumer demand, and an improved situation in the energy sector, which persisted until the end of September.

The expected increase in budget stimuli at the end of the year will support further recovery. However, the energy deficit caused by recent infrastructure destruction and gas production capacity, along with the persistent labor shortage, will significantly limit business activity. In view of this, the NBU revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9% (from 2.1% in the July forecast - ed.)

Recall

According to the Ministry of Economy, in August, Ukraine's GDP growth was 5.3%. Minister Oleksiy Sobolev predicts further growth, while in Russia it is slowing down.