Global Trade 2026: Trump's Tariffs Provoke Global Recession and Logistics Chaos – Bloomberg
Kyiv • UNN
Analysts warn that tariffs imposed by Donald Trump will slow global GDP and overload European ports. This will also lead to a massive review of supply chains by companies.
The global economy is preparing for a "year of consequences" as tariffs imposed by Donald Trump begin to directly curb global GDP and overload European ports. This is reported by Bloomberg, writes UNN.
Details
The main message of the analysts: 2025 was the year of tariff announcements, and 2026 will be the time of economic reckoning. Already, imports to the US have fallen by 8%, while commodity flows are being reoriented to India, Latin America, and Africa. According to OECD forecasts, due to trade wars, global production may fall by 0.3%, and inflation may rise. Companies are forced to massively revise supply chains to circumvent the 10-40% tariffs introduced by Washington.
USMCA Review: A Rift Between Allies
One of the main events of the year will be the mandatory review of the trade agreement between the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The Trump administration has already made it clear that it will not limit itself to procedural matters.
Virtually all stakeholders have called for improvements to the agreement
However, any concessions to one country will mean losses for another, threatening to break stable industrial ties in North America.
The logistics sector expects a "second blow" due to the possible massive return of vessels to the Suez Canal. If the security situation allows abandoning the longer route around Africa, the market will instantly receive an excess of capacity. Experts warn: a sharp return of the fleet to the Red Sea will cause a collapse and "massive problems with port congestion in Europe," similar to the traffic jams during the pandemic.
Challenges for Ukraine
For the Ukrainian economy, 2026 carries a double risk. A global slowdown in trade will reduce demand for domestic exports. At the same time, the trade war between the US and China creates conditions for relocating production closer to the consumer, where Ukraine could become a new industrial hub for Europe.