A New Major War Near the Red Sea — What Is Happening in Ethiopia and What Threat Does It Pose to the World
Kyiv • UNN
Large-scale fighting has resumed in Ethiopia between the army and the TPLF. The escalation could draw in Eritrea and threaten key trade routes.
The conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region is rapidly escalating, with large-scale fighting once again breaking out between government forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) after several years of relative calm. A new war could extend far beyond the country's borders and draw in neighboring states, creating an additional threat to the Red Sea region, Yle reports, citing experts, Reuters and AP, writes UNN.
Details
In recent days, fighting has spread across a large part of Tigray. The Ethiopian army is using drones, while TPLF forces have seized airports and appeared on the streets of Mekelle, the region's largest city. Some civilians are leaving the city, while internet access has been cut off in the north of the country. The TPLF also declared that the 2022 peace agreement is no longer in effect.
The current escalation is a continuation of the 2020–2022 war, which, according to estimates cited by Yle, claimed around 600,000 lives and forced millions of people to flee their homes. The conflict was accompanied by mass killings, sexual violence and famine.
Why the new war could spread beyond Ethiopia
The situation is being complicated by shifting regional alliances. Eritrea, which supported the Ethiopian government against the TPLF during the previous war, has reportedly now moved closer to Tigrayan forces. At the same time, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated due to Addis Ababa's efforts to gain access to the Red Sea.
Added to this are the civil war in Sudan, Ethiopia's disputes with Egypt and Sudan over the waters of the Nile, and instability on the other side of the Red Sea, where Yemen's Houthis are active. A direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could create a new crisis near one of the world's key trade routes.
A cycle of revenge could lead to a chain reaction similar to that of World War I, when a conflict expands because different sides come to each other's aid
He stressed that such a scenario is not the most likely, but the risk of an uncontrolled escalation exists, and a repeat of the previous war would primarily mean enormous civilian casualties.