Belarus
The Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC CPD) predicts an intensification of Russian propaganda in the second half of August. The enemy will discredit the negotiation process, the exchange of prisoners, and spread fakes about Ukraine's loss of sovereignty.
Andriy Demchenko, spokesman for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, stated that provocations are possible during the joint military exercises of Russia and Belarus, but there is currently no strike group near the Ukrainian border.
Russian invaders are teaching Ukrainian children sniper skills in Luhansk region. They also make it difficult for children to leave the occupied territories, demanding Russian international passports.
Oleksandr Lukashenka stated that Putin did not ask Belarus for military assistance, as this would create more problems. He noted that Belarus has a long border with Ukraine, which would be difficult to control.
The hunger strike of Ukrainians stranded at the Georgian checkpoint "Dariali" on the border with Russia has ended. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine is working on returning citizens to their homeland and unblocking the transit route.
Oleksandr Lukashenka, during a conversation with Volodymyr Putin, stated that Donald Trump is right to "bend Europe over" and offered Minsk for negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the USA. He also emphasized that Russia will not lose in Ukraine.
In Belarus, a draft law has been developed that expands the powers of the army in peacetime to control society and suppress protests. The changes also provide for an expanded interpretation of the grounds for introducing martial law.
The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine reported that the situation on the border with Belarus remains unchanged. This comes against the backdrop of the arrival of the first group of Russian military personnel in Belarus for joint exercises.
The Ministry of Defense of Belarus proposes changes to the law on martial law, expanding the list of conditions for its introduction. Among them are an assassination attempt or death of the president, as well as strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on military facilities in Russia.
The first echelon of Russian military personnel and equipment has arrived in Belarus to prepare for the joint strategic exercises "West-2025". These maneuvers are called the main stage of preparation for the armies of the two countries in 2025.
Lithuanian Prosecutor General Nida Grunskienė reported that the drone that flew in from Belarus contained an explosive charge. It was neutralized by Lithuanian military specialists at the training ground.
Germany has redeployed five Eurofighter jets and 150 military personnel to Poland. This happened four weeks before the start of the joint Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 exercises, scheduled for September.
Russia has lifted the moratorium on intermediate- and short-range missiles, which is a formality. Iskanders have already been deployed in Crimea since 2019, when the US withdrew from the treaty due to Russia's violations.
Poland has signed a contract worth over 6 billion euros with South Korea for the purchase of an additional 180 K2 tanks, which will increase its tank fleet to 1,100 units. This will make the country one of the leading tank powers in NATO, surpassing the combined tank numbers of Great Britain, Germany, France, and Italy.
In Belarus, a replacement of some diplomats with more loyal individuals is expected after a meeting of heads of diplomatic missions. This is due to a drop in exports and a negative trade balance, which exceeded $770 million in January-May 2025.
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that the dictator of Belarus would not agree to provide a corridor for Russians to Ukraine at the moment. However, he recalled the events of 2022, urging to be ready for anything.
Kyrylo Budanov believes that Ukraine should prepare for life under a protracted threat, focusing on security models similar to those of Israel or South Korea. He denied the likelihood of a "Georgian scenario" for Ukraine, emphasizing the impossibility of returning towards Russia.
Putin commented on Donald Trump's statement about disappointment, noting that all disappointments arise from excessive expectations. The Russian side proposed three groups for online negotiations, which have not yet started.
A drone that flew in from Belarus was found at the Gaižiūnai training ground in Lithuania. According to preliminary data, it resembles a Russian Shahed-type drone.
In Lithuania, the military has been searching for a drone that may have flown in from Belarus for the third day. The search is focused north of Kaunas, a helicopter has been involved, and over 100 people have been interviewed.
The Belarusian government is accelerating the launch of productions related to drones, dual-use electronics, and targeting equipment. This is happening against the backdrop of Russia's full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine, as reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Lithuanian police received dozens of reports about an unknown object in the air, likely a drone from Belarus, spotted near Vilnius. The version that it is a disoriented Ukrainian air defense drone is being considered, and searches are ongoing in central Lithuania.
Hackers Silent Crow and "Belarusian Cyberpartisans" attacked Aeroflot's servers, destroying databases, including passengers' personal data. Aeroflot confirmed a system failure, which led to the cancellation of more than 40 domestic flights.
A 24-year-old resident of Volyn was recruited through anonymous Telegram channels to cooperate with Belarusian special services. He transmitted data on the fortification and movement of Ukrainian troops, for which he faces life imprisonment.
On July 28, an unknown drone crossed Lithuanian airspace from Belarus, spotted at an altitude of about 200 meters near Vilnius. Lithuanian media suggest it could have been a Russian "Gerbera" drone, similar to "Shahed", or a smuggler's UAV.
The International Olympic Committee is considering admitting athletes from Russia and Belarus to the 2026 Winter Games only as "neutrals. " Participation criteria will be strict: no support for the war and no ties to the army or security forces.
Lithuanian intelligence records an active KGB of Belarus campaign on social networks aimed at recruiting Belarusian citizens abroad. KGB officers openly contact the diaspora, offering rewards and making threats.
Estonia has made sanctions against Belarus indefinite, extending the entry ban for 273 regime representatives, including Oleksandr Lukashenka. This decision is due to the unchanged human rights situation and Minsk's support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing Belarusian citizens permanently residing in Russia to participate in local elections. Russians living in Belarus will receive a similar right.
After a weekend with intense rains, the cyclone over Belarus is receding, stabilizing the weather in Ukraine. Short-term precipitation is expected at the beginning of the week, followed by mostly dry weather and heat up to 35 degrees in the south.