Colliers: Nawrocki's Victory Will Not Affect the Polish Economy, but There Are Risks
Kyiv • UNN
International consulting company Colliers believes that the election of Karol Nawrocki as President of Poland will not change the country's economic growth forecasts, but the cost of his promises will affect investment attractiveness.
Colliers, commenting on Navrotsky's victory, noted that the cost of financing his campaign promises could exceed $1 billion 200 thousand annually. UNN reports with reference to Colliers and Onet Wiadomości.
Details
In Poland, in the second round of the presidential elections, Karol Navrotskyi, who is supported by PiS (Law and Justice), won. He received 50.89 percent of the vote.
Colliers, commenting on Navrotsky's victory, drew attention to a number of aspects related to the level of the Polish economy and further development, taking into account the previous promises of the newly elected president.
Colliers stressed that the election of Karol Navrotskyi as president does not change their forecast for Poland's economic growth. They estimate that in 2025 and 2026 it will reach 3.3%. This will make "Poland one of the fastest growing economies in the European Union".
As for the investment attractiveness of Poland, there are questions here.
Among the factors that affect the "concern" of analysts, we are talking about a reduction in VAT from 23 to 22 percent - this will cost about 15 billion zlotys.
Valorization of pensions - this is at least 150 zlotys and will cost 6-7 billion zlotys per year.
Preservation of the 14th pension, which, according to them, generates similar costs.
Investments in infrastructure, such as the Central Communication Port (CPK) (the largest infrastructure investment in the history of Poland). According to Colliers' estimates, about 131.7 billion zlotys will be spent on it in the coming years. This is an average of about 16.5 billion zlotys per year until 2032.
In addition, the reduction of the mining tax will cost 11 billion zlotys.
Colliers representatives believe the following:
The implementation of these proposals without a radical reduction in other expenditures may lead to the fact that the national debt will exceed the threshold of 65% of GDP already in 2026.
Since 2022, the national debt has increased from 48.8% to 55.3% of GDP.
The deterioration of fiscal indicators may negatively affect the investment attractiveness of Poland
Addition
The new Polish president can use legislative initiative to promote his own projects. Also, according to Colliers' analysis, in foreign policy, unlike Tszaskowski and the current government, Navrotsky is more confrontational towards the European Union. The announcement of the termination of the Green Agreement may lead to tension with Brussels and potential restriction of access to EU funds, Colliers summarizes in the report.
Let's remind
Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Karol Navrotsky on his victory in the presidential elections in Poland. He expressed hope for fruitful cooperation between Ukraine and Poland.
Prime Minister Tusk stated that Poland will support the reconstruction of Ukraine. The terminal in Slawkowo will be key, but the country's economic strategy will focus on protecting the interests of Polish business.