Will Iran open a new front against Ukraine - political scientist explains what lies behind Tehran's threats
Kyiv • UNN
Iran is unlikely to significantly increase its involvement in the war against Ukraine due to internal problems and the conflict with the US. The strike on a vessel with Iranian cargo was a signal from the US about Ukraine's readiness to be an ally.
The strike on a vessel carrying Iranian military cargo across the Caspian Sea has not only military but also political significance. Ukraine is demonstrating its capabilities, confirming its readiness to be an ally of the United States, and simultaneously strengthening its own position in relations with the administration of Donald Trump. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive comment to UNN by political scientist Oleh Lisnyi.
Iran has long become a party to the war against Ukraine
After statements by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about striking a vessel with Iranian military cargo in the Caspian Sea, Tehran claimed that it supposedly does not participate in the war against Ukraine. At the same time, according to Oleh Lisnyi, these claims do not correspond to reality, as Iran has in fact been supporting Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
The political scientist recalled that from the very beginning of the war, Ukraine offered the United States assistance in the field of unmanned technologies, so the current actions are not a change of course, but merely a continuation of an already chosen strategy.
Ukraine offered the United States its help from the very first days of the campaign against Iran – both in the form of drone specialists and regarding maritime drones. So there is nothing new here. We are on the side of the United States, and there is nothing surprising about this because Iran is on the side of the Russian Federation. This is a proven fact. Every night we see the 'Shaheds' that fly into Ukrainian cities. They are definitely not from Mars. This is Iran's participation in the war against Ukraine
He emphasized that Tehran's statements about non-involvement in the war are propaganda.
When Iran says it has nothing to do with this war, it is an outright lie. We know that at the beginning of the use of 'Shaheds,' Iranian instructors were even present in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. In addition, there is a large-scale cooperation agreement between Iran and Russia. Therefore, all these statements are just propaganda of a dictatorial regime
Iran is unlikely to resort to open escalation
Despite Tehran's loud statements about a possible response, the political scientist does not believe that Iran is capable of significantly increasing its participation in the war against Ukraine. According to him, the current situation inside the country and the conflict with the United States leave the Iranian authorities without sufficient resources for open escalation.
I do not think that Iran currently has the ability to fully engage in the war against Ukraine. They have already effectively taken Russia's side, but today they simply have nothing with which to openly expand their participation. They have enough of their own problems. Therefore, most likely, they will continue to use diplomatic and informational pressure through the UN and other international platforms together with Russia, but I do not see a real threat of a sharp increase in their involvement at the moment
The strike on the vessel became both a military and political signal to the United States
According to the political scientist, the operation to strike the vessel has several dimensions at once. It demonstrates Ukraine's military capabilities, but at the same time is a signal to Washington about Kyiv's readiness to act as an ally.
One does not interfere with the other at all. This is both military logic and a political signal simultaneously. We are demonstrating our capabilities. If everyone is already used to operations in the Black Sea, now Ukraine is showing that its special services and military are capable of operating much more broadly. This is Ukraine's trump card. We are demonstrating our 'long arm,' and this cannot go unnoticed by our partners, primarily the United States
Successes on the battlefield help change Trump's attitude
Separately, the expert assessed the change in Donald Trump's rhetoric regarding Ukraine. In his opinion, the positive signals from the American president are primarily related to the results of the Ukrainian military.
Trump is changing his attitude not because he simply decided one day to support Ukraine. He sees concrete results. Our successes on the battlefield, our long-range capabilities, the development of unmanned technologies – all of this commands respect. When Ukraine demonstrates strength, it works much better than any words
According to Lisnyi, it is important that Trump has recently begun to navigate the course of the war significantly better.
During the NATO summit, it was noticeable that Trump understands the situation on the front very well. It gives the impression that he has started to read more carefully the information provided to him by the US military and intelligence. This adds cautious optimism regarding his future position
Ukraine needs to constantly hold Trump's attention
The political scientist emphasizes that for Ukraine, it is now important not only to maintain the attention of the US president but also to sustain a positive attitude towards Kyiv.
At the same time, he warns that due to the peculiarities of Donald Trump's character, predicting his position in the long term is practically impossible.
Our main task is to hold Trump's attention on Ukraine and maintain his positive attitude. But this must be done with concrete results. It is important for us to at least preserve the current level of attention and support until the end of autumn. At the same time, we must remember: Trump is a very unpredictable politician. If the situation changes, he can quickly change his position as well. That is why Ukraine needs to constantly demonstrate successes and remain an important partner for the United States