What Ukraine can use to replace the scarce Patriot missiles as early as this winter: experts name possible options
Kyiv • UNN
The delivery of 500 PAC-3 MSE missiles could take years due to the 24-month production timeline. For the winter, European stocks and Japan are being considered.
Ukraine may receive additional interceptor missiles for Patriot systems from European partners or Japan to strengthen protection against Russian ballistic missiles this winter. At the same time, it would be unwise to count on the rapid delivery of 500 PAC-3 MSE missiles, the sale of which has been approved by the United States. Defense Express reports this, according to UNN.
Details
The U.S. Department of State has approved the sale to Ukraine of 500 PAC-3 MSE missiles, along with spare parts and equipment, worth approximately $2.1 billion. The funding will be provided by Canada, Germany, and Norway במסגרת the JUMPSTART program, as well as through funds associated with an EU loan.
However, the main contractor for the deal is manufacturer Lockheed Martin, and the full production cycle for one missile takes approximately 24 months. Therefore, the delivery of all 500 interceptors could take several years, even if Ukraine's order is given priority.
Where Ukraine could obtain missiles this winter
According to Defense Express, one of the most realistic short-term options is the transfer of PAC-3 MSE missiles from the stocks of European allies, particularly Poland and Germany.
These countries have already transferred such interceptors to Ukraine. However, the number would likely be measured in dozens of missiles rather than hundreds. In addition, the partners need guarantees that their own stocks will be replenished quickly.
Another potential source is Japan—the only country that has localized PAC-3 MSE production. Japanese officials had previously indicated that the transfer of surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine was possible, but there have been no specific decisions regarding this particular modification yet.
Will new air defense systems help?
In the long term, French-Italian SAMP/T NG systems equipped with Ground Fire 300 radars could become an alternative to Patriot.
Ukraine expects to receive four such systems starting in 2027. Therefore, it is currently not possible to count on them as a solution for the winter of 2026–2027.
Another promising area is the European FREYJA antiballistic system project, whose first tests are scheduled for early 2027.
Defense Express emphasizes that even 500 new PAC-3 MSE missiles would not solve the shortage problem for long. With an estimated need of approximately 150 interceptors per month, such a stockpile would last only slightly more than three months.