Trilateral meeting of Zelenskyy, Trump, and Putin: political scientist assessed the likelihood of it taking place
Kyiv • UNN
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnyk predicts a possible trilateral meeting of the leaders of Ukraine, the USA, and Russia in the summer or early autumn. This meeting could resolve urgent issues that require personal agreement between the heads of state.
Tomorrow, August 8, marks the end of the ultimatum that US President Donald Trump issued to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin regarding a ceasefire against Ukraine. However, on the eve of this, Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, visited Moscow, and the American leader gave a generally positive assessment of the visit, stating that it was "more productive than expected."
Will the head of the White House implement his ultimatum plans regarding Russia, and has the trilateral meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump, and Putin been brought closer? Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics and political scientist, told UNN.
Donald Trump's Ultimatum
Witkoff's trip and his meeting with Putin essentially postponed, and possibly even annulled, Trump's ultimatum, as it effectively allows Trump to claim today that progress has been made. Now the ultimatum issue is not as relevant, especially against the backdrop of preparations for a possible trilateral meeting between the presidents.
The political scientist noted that all of Trump's decisive sanction actions concerned not Russia, but its allies, and primarily addressed US foreign policy interests.
From the very beginning, I didn't really believe in that ultimatum, because the proposed mechanisms and threats after this ultimatum concerned Russia's trading partners, not Russia itself. Their application significantly changed the logic of American-Chinese, American-Indian, or American-Turkish relations. It looked like a rather unrealistic approach.
Trump's rhetoric accelerated many processes
Trump's rhetoric and his actions accelerate many processes. If it weren't for Trump, there would be no serious talks about peace, about ending the war, there would be nothing. Trump's constant pressure, political and diplomatic escalations on his part, force Moscow to participate in these negotiations, force Moscow to slightly reduce the degree of possible actions. It is more cautious in terms of shelling, other aggressive actions. This helps Ukraine and allows it to keep the war within certain limits.
He also reminded that during Joe Biden's time, although Ukraine received assistance, no serious political shifts occurred. This could have been the case with Trump, who threatened to withdraw from the peace settlement process. Instead, Trump's actions are already influencing this war.
The indifference of the Biden era, when Ukraine received aid, but from a political point of view, Biden demanded nothing from either Ukraine or Russia. Or the indifference that Trump threatened – if it were implemented, I think the scale of the war and the scale of attacks on Ukrainian territory, the scale of crises, the scale of sabotage would be much higher. Trump's actions, though unnoticed by us, have already reduced the degree of confrontation and prevented the escalation of this war.
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Trilateral meeting of leaders
A trilateral meeting is possible. I remind you that the President of Ukraine supports this meeting and has long insisted on a personal meeting with Putin. I think Zelenskyy will not be against Trump's participation. The meeting is important, and it is there that urgent problems and issues can be resolved that can only be resolved face-to-face, which only leaders can agree on. Which delegations cannot agree on, because these issues will entail significant internal political consequences. This concerns territories, the balance of security between countries, mutual relations, legitimacy-illegitimacy, and much more.
According to the political scientist, the meeting between Zelenskyy, Trump, and Putin could well take place in late summer or during the first half of autumn. However, it is too early to talk about what it will end with and what the geopolitical situation will be like after it.
There is a possibility that this trilateral meeting will take place already during the summer or the first half of autumn this year. Will it be successful? It could be successful, but it is difficult to predict whether the parties will be able to reach some stable agreement on ending the war, and even more so on forming a new geopolitical balance in Eastern Europe.
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Oval Office-2
If there are cameras, it could turn into a "second Oval Office." Zelenskyy won't mince words either. There will be an argument, a quarrel. If there are no cameras, then there is a high risk that at certain moments there will be very serious pressure on Ukraine. One could find themselves in a situation similar to 1991-1994, when Ukraine was deprived of nuclear weapons. At the same time, both Russia and the West, especially the US, exerted strong pressure.
At the same time, it should not be ruled out that joint pressure will also be exerted on Putin. One way or another, such a meeting will have some consequences.
Ukraine will undoubtedly be pressured. But there is a chance that at certain moments there will be joint pressure on the Russian leader as well. In any case, such a meeting would be a denouement. The leaders, leaving this meeting, would have clearly put, if not a period, then an ellipsis in the negotiation process and in the conclusions regarding the possibility or impossibility of reaching a peace agreement.