Sanctions and restrictions create negative dynamics for Russia's maritime exports - intelligence

Sanctions and market restrictions are forming a stable negative dynamic for Russian maritime exports, despite Russia continuing to increase crude oil shipments. This is reported by UNN with reference to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

Details

At the same time, a significant part of the cargo remains at sea without unloading, and carriers are increasingly resorting to changing destination ports and ship-to-ship operations to circumvent restrictions.

The volumes of "oil on water" are growing: since the beginning of December 2025, about 180 million barrels of Russian crude oil have accumulated on tankers, which is 28% more than at the end of August, and is the maximum level since 2022. In parallel, export revenues are decreasing: Urals prices in the Baltic region fell to $41.16, in the Black Sea to $38.28, and ESPO fell to $52.36 per barrel.

However, demand for Russian oil in the Global South countries is weakening, the intelligence service noted.

After US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, a number of Chinese and Indian refineries intensified inspections of tankers, leading to delays and redirection of supplies. Frequent route changes and work through intermediaries exacerbate sales difficulties.

The Foreign Intelligence Service noted: overloaded routes, accumulation of oil at sea, and increasing risks for buyers signal a structural deterioration of Russian export conditions.

They believe that due to rising logistics costs, dependence on the "shadow" fleet is increasing, and price pressure on Russian oil grades will grow, further limiting opportunities to circumvent sanctions.

Recall

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, more than 120 tankers left Russian ports in November 20205, of which 92 belong to the core of the "shadow fleet".