Russia's incessant attacks on Ukraine - expert says how long the enemy has the resources to sustain them
Kyiv • UNN
According to the military expert, the intensification of the strikes is connected with the situation on the front and pressure on Ukrainians and Europe. Oleh Zhdanov also pointed to restrictions on drone production and mobilization in Russia.
Russia continues its massive strikes on Ukraine, while air-raid alerts may last longer due to the enemy's attempts to maintain a high pace of attacks. Military expert Oleh Zhdanov told UNN exclusively that the current escalation is linked not only to military objectives, but also to the Kremlin's desire to put pressure on Ukrainian society and create panic.
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At the same time, he notes that Russia's capabilities have their limitations. Zhdanov does not directly link the current intensification of the attacks to the upcoming elections in Russia. Instead, in his opinion, a more important reason may have been the internal situation within Russia's military and political leadership, as well as information about the real state of affairs on the front. He also draws attention to the competition between various Russian security agencies.
I do not entirely agree that Putin wants to show that he knows how to wage war. The capture of Donbas is not a prospect for tomorrow, and he will not accomplish anything by the elections anyway. I think that this hysteria by Putin (I cannot call it anything else) was most likely provoked by the visit of the CIA director
Military expert links the escalation to the situation on the front
Zhdanov suggests that after reports on the real state of affairs in the war, the Russian leadership may have demanded a quick result from the military. Against this backdrop, he says, Russia sharply increased the intensity of its strikes on Ukraine. The first wave of attacks was particularly powerful, after which their intensity began to decline.
There is competition between the Ministry of Defense and the Federal Security Service of Russia. And I think that after Bortnikov heard the CIA director's report regarding the real situation on the front, he reported everything to Putin word for word. As soon as the CIA director left, this escalation began immediately. The first two days in particular were very loud, with a great many drones, while now there are significantly fewer of them and the intervals between launches have become longer
In the military expert's opinion, Russia is trying not only to carry out military strikes, but also to maintain constant psychological tension. He names the impact on Ukrainian society and the destruction of critical infrastructure systems among the main objectives. That is why, Oleh Zhdanov believes, the duration of the current campaign depends not only on Russia's plans, but also on Ukraine's ability to counter the attacks.
Putin will try with all his might to maintain the pace of attacks in order to terrorize the population, destroy the critical infrastructure system, and thereby cause chaos and panic among the population. They will try with all their might to maintain the pace of launches for as long as they can. I think everything indicates that Putin will apply pressure with all his might
Can Russia maintain such a pace for a long time?
The military expert believes that the current intensity of the strikes already demonstrates certain limitations in Russia's production capacity. According to him, after the first two days, the number of attacks decreased, and Russian forces may switch to using new batches of drones immediately after they are produced. At the same time, Moscow is trying to protect its production facilities from Ukrainian strikes.
They have now reached a kind of plateau, operating from the wheels: they produce somewhere around 50-plus jet drones per day and launch approximately the same number at us. Most likely, their stockpiles have run out, and now they are working straight off the production line
According to Zhdanov, an important Ukrainian response is strikes on the launch sites and possible storage locations of Russian drones. At the same time, he believes that Ukraine needs additional means of destruction to achieve a more significant impact. However, he assesses the effectiveness of Russia's new tactics ambiguously.
If we do not cut off either the supply or destroy the warehouses located in the area of the launch positions, we are unlikely to stop this escalation. It would be highly effective to have ballistic missiles. That would simply be the ideal weapon against these ballistic missiles—to cover the areas of the training grounds from which these Shaheds are launched. But we do not have them. We are waiting
Russia seeks to put pressure on Europe as well
Separately, the military expert draws attention to Russia’s hybrid actions against European countries. In his view, the goal is to create chaos and fear that could influence the decisions of European governments, causing them to halt or limit aid to Ukraine.
For the second year already, we have been arguing that the Third World War of a new hybrid type, as Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the General Staff, wrote in his academic article in 2021, is now in full swing. All these acts of sabotage, arson attacks, and terrorist attacks are components or small battles of this major hybrid war. And the West is afraid to acknowledge this
Zhdanov believes that the Kremlin is simultaneously using several avenues of pressure—strikes against Ukraine and attempts to destabilize European countries. According to him, both campaigns should be part of a single strategy. He calls weakening support for Ukraine its ultimate goal.
Having achieved no success on the front, Putin is escalating in two areas. First, he is trying to break our public opinion with this "bloody marathon" of attacks on Kyiv and the Kyiv region. And the second front is the creation of chaos and panic among European countries with the aim of forcing them to halt aid to Ukraine. Because this is the main goal
Mobilization in Russia
The military expert names problems with recruiting personnel as another factor that could affect Russia’s ability to wage war. He does not consider the automatic fulfillment of Russia’s announced plans to recruit hundreds of thousands of new troops realistic. Instead, he says, Russia’s recruitment system is currently facing serious problems.
They had a plan for 2026—409,000. Belousov, Russia’s defense minister, spoke about it at the beginning of the year. They failed in the first half of the year; they did not even recruit 30%—that is about 130,000. And now they have a huge problem: the military enlistment offices are not ready for mass mobilization
According to the expert, even if a political decision is made, rapidly recruiting 600,000 people will be difficult. He also suggests that mass conscription could have social consequences for certain regions of Russia. At the same time, the Kremlin may try to use mechanisms of coercion that are already in place.
Putin has the desire every year for half a million, a million. We hear this every year from Putin and his entourage. So I do not think they will be able to recruit 600,000 by the end of the year, and it is not a fact that a new wave of mobilization in Russia will not trigger a social explosion in some regions of the Russian Federation