Round-the-clock Russian terror: how much longer will the enemy be able to attack Ukraine continuously

Russia continues its massive drone attacks on Ukraine and is attempting to cover as large an area as possible with its strikes. Military expert Oleh Zhdanov told a UNN journalist more about why the Russian Federation is relying on massive air attacks, how they are connected to political pressure on Ukraine, and what could force Russia to reduce the intensity of its strikes.

Details

Russian drone attacks are taking place virtually around the clock, but the nature of the air strikes changed at the end of October. According to the military expert, whereas reactive drones predominated earlier, Russia is now once again actively using conventional attack drones. In addition, the enemy is attempting to simultaneously cover as much of Ukrainian territory as possible with its attacks.

It is very strange that now "our old song is starting again—we are starting it all over again." In the sense that they are now going to attack 24/7. And what have they been doing all this time? Even now, if you look out the window, air raid alerts are in effect 24/7 across most of Ukraine. And we made it through the whole of September like that 

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At the same time, Oleh Zhdanov noted that at the end of September, short intervals began to appear between drone raids. In particular, in Kyiv and other cities, there was sometimes approximately an hour between successive attacks, but at the end of October, Russia once again intensified its attacks.

The difference at the end of October is that they began trying to cover all of Ukraine. They have returned again: whereas in September they were mostly reactive, now they have once again added conventional "Shaheds" and "Geran-2" drones. And their number is greater—more than half of the drones in these continuous raids at present 

Ballistic missiles also remain a separate threat; their launches, Oleh Zhdanov emphasizes, are more difficult to predict. He explains that recently Russia has used them at intervals of approximately once every 7–10 days. Moreover, the intensity of such strikes may vary, so Ukraine must also be prepared for combined attacks.

Will Russia have enough resources for continuous attacks

The expert notes that Russia is using the means of destruction at its disposal, while the scale of drone use depends, in particular, on production capabilities.

They can provide a large number of drones—and they do. Note that in September they were stockpiling conventional "Geran-2" drones. In fact, they used very few of them for a month, and then in the first ten days of October they carried out two powerful strikes, when the number of conventional drones exceeded 500 units. And now they are launching them within the limits produced by their enterprises 

At the same time, Oleh Zhdanov believes that Russia has limited capacity to accumulate large stockpiles of weapons, so it is forced to constantly replenish the resources it has used. However, this does not mean that the intensity of the attacks will necessarily decrease in the near future.

They are essentially operating straight from the production line; there are very few stockpiles at present. And I say again, we have two options: the first is to destroy their production facilities, but we cannot reach them, plus they have now begun burying the same "Geran" drones in the ground. So the second option is to build an air defense system in a new, modern sense, rather than according to the old approaches of the Soviet Union or the Second World War 

Why Russia is relying on drones

Massive drone attacks allow Russia to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses over a prolonged period and create a constant threat to the civilian population and infrastructure. In the expert's view, the Kremlin seeks to use these strikes as an instrument of pressure on Ukrainians in order to secure concessions on its own terms.

The objective is one and only one—to break public opinion so that people agree to capitulate on the terms of the Russian Federation. And now, by the way, negotiations are underway in Norway, and it is the same old song: "Surrender, and everything will be fine for you. If you do not surrender to us, we will continue the shelling." That's all 

The expert also links the intensity of Russian attacks, in particular, to the upcoming midterm elections in the United States and negotiations on ending the war, in order to increase pressure on Ukraine precisely during periods of important international events.

Absolutely. putin always ties powerful shelling of Ukraine and massive combined strikes to political events. Today, the midterm elections in the United States are at the top of our agenda. And in fact, in my view, both Trump and putin have simultaneously gone all in. They are applying pressure in every way they can,  - with all available forces and means 

What could force Russia to reduce the number of strikes

The expert identifies strengthening Ukraine’s air defense as one of the key areas for countering Russian attacks. In his opinion, it is necessary to improve the ability to intercept targets at short and medium ranges, as well as to develop weapons capable of destroying threats before they are used. In addition, strikes against Russia’s military-industrial enterprises also play an important role.

Sanctions are a long song. And the most effective sanctions are our missiles and our drones. Unfortunately, our strikes against military-industrial complex enterprises are not as powerful as one would like, because even a drone carrying 100 kilograms of explosives is not a missile carrying 300 or 500 kilograms of explosives 

Oleh Zhdanov  also drew attention to the importance of ballistic weapons, which, according to him, could enhance Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian launchers and other military targets. At the same time, the effectiveness of countermeasures depends not only on the availability of such weapons, but also on the ability to detect targets in a timely manner and strike them. The expert believes that the development of indigenous missile technologies could become one of the factors deterring Russian attacks.

If we had ballistic missiles, we would take out the launchers or at least drive them away from the border so that they could not reach our territory. There is very little time to hit a launcher at its launch position or in the loading area. That is why Russia is very afraid of Ukraine acquiring ballistic weapons