Regular power outages in Ukraine — will there be a blackout this year?

As the cold weather approaches, the question of the energy system’s stability is once again becoming one of the key issues for Ukrainians. The situation in winter will be affected by air temperature, consumption levels, the condition of generation facilities and networks, as well as damage to the energy system caused by strikes by the Russian Federation. At the same time, individual regions may find themselves in different circumstances due to the specific features of the energy system’s architecture. Journalist UNN was told more about whether blackouts should be expected in the near future by Andrian Prokip, head of energy programs at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future.

Details

According to the expert, several factors will simultaneously affect how quickly outages occur. It is not only a matter of how much of the energy system has been repaired, but also of other factors.

The need for outages is determined by the balance between the capabilities of the energy system (the availability of sufficient capacity to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity), on the one hand, and demand, on the other. As of the end of September, there is sufficient capacity under various weather scenarios. This winter is also expected to be warmer than last winter. And it is Russian shelling that may critically change this balance—either across the country as a whole or in individual regions. In other words, the critical factor in determining the need to introduce outage schedules will be how effectively we protect ourselves—the effectiveness of our air defense

Another factor that will affect the scale of potential outage schedules is the reduction in electricity consumption. And this is not only about the expected warmer weather.. According to Andrian Prokip, this is related, in particular, to strikes on energy-intensive enterprises and problems with product exports, as well as consumers installing their own electricity generation facilities.

We have another factor that will reduce the potential deficit in the energy system—the decrease in electricity consumption by industry. Primarily because of Russian strikes on energy-intensive consumers, such as the metallurgical industry. And because of these enterprises’ problems exporting their products via the Black Sea. These enterprises are effectively halting production. Another factor reducing demand for electricity from the integrated energy system is self-generation: consumers are actively installing their own generation facilities, including solar power plants, while industry is also installing gas-fired generation

Thus, according to him, a significant reduction in electricity demand is expected this year, which may also affect the scale of a possible deficit. However, the final situation will depend primarily on the course of Russian attacks.

Ultimately, we expect a significant reduction in electricity demand this year. That is, even if a deficit arises, assuming the same pattern of shelling as last year, it should occur later and its scale should be smaller. But despite all this, there may be a situation in which there is a deficit in some regions and not in others. In other words, there will be outages in some places and no outages in others

Attacks on facilities that ensure the transmission of electricity between regions remain a separate problem. As a result, the situation may differ in different parts of the country. Andrian Prokip emphasizes that it is currently impossible to predict a specific scenario.

We do not have information about how they will strike, when they will strike, what they will strike, or how we will be able to repel the attacks. Accordingly, it is impossible to say what the outages will be like or when they will begin. At the same time, if we do not take into account the possibility that we may have problems with air defense due to a shortage of missiles, then, essentially, we are much better prepared for winter—we are in a better position than we were last year

According to the expert, the energy system currently has reserve generation capacity compared with peak consumption, but this may change in the event of new large-scale attacks on energy facilities, as happened last year.

As of October 1 last year, our power system had enough capacity that we should have gone through the entire winter without outages. In principle, we should have been exporting electricity in winter, but starting on October 10, a new wave of massive attacks began. And remember the situation we found ourselves in in January and February. In other words, based on the capacity balance that existed before the shelling, everything was fine for us, but the shelling changed this situation

In addition, individual regions may face a deficit earlier due to the specific features of local generation and networks.

Right now, our surplus of generation over peak consumption is even greater. No one will tell you exactly what the outages will be or when they will begin. Consumption will remain at a relatively low level until the beginning of November. Deficits may occur in some regions because there are cities that have a deficit and depend on the power system and external supplies

Among the cities facing such a risk, the expert specifically named Kyiv and Odesa, because their own generation does not cover the entire demand, so they depend on electricity transmission from the integrated power system. Strikes on substations that provide this connection may create local problems.

For example, Kyiv, and Odesa, for example. We do not have enough of our own generation to cover demand. And what the Russians are doing is trying to strike the substations that connect these cities to the integrated power system. Remember Odesa and how this used to happen. But everything was restored, we all pulled together, and everything fell back into place

Thus, it is currently impossible to determine the specific period when the nearest outages will occur. At the same time, according to the expert's assessment, Ukraine is entering this heating season in a better position than last year.