ISW: Russia will be able to fully capture Donetsk Oblast in August 2027 at current rates of advance
Kyiv • UNN
The Institute for the Study of War predicts that Russian forces will be able to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by August 2027 at current rates of advance. From July 31 to November 26, the occupiers advanced 0.12 km per day.
At the current pace of advance, Russian troops could capture the rest of the Donetsk region, which remains under Ukraine's control, by August 2027. This forecast was published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports.
Details
They indicate that Russian troops first entered Pokrovsk on July 31, and from then until November 26, they advanced an average of 0.12 kilometers per day.
Russian forces have not captured Pokrovsk – an 11.5 square mile city – despite operating in the city for over 118 days, ... they have consolidated advances in 66 percent of Pokrovsk as of November 26, which is a low percentage given the time and human resources (elements of at least two combined armies) Russia has committed to these objectives.
Analysts note that data on the pace of Russian troop advances indicate that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable – a narrative consistently promoted by the Kremlin.
The reality on the battlefield indicates that Russia's victory in Ukraine is far from certain. ... Putin and Russian military commanders are trying to portray Russia as capable of quickly seizing the Donetsk region militarily, but reliable data on the pace of Russia's advance in the Donetsk region do not indicate that Russian forces will inevitably seize the rest of the region.
They add that Russian forces prioritized completing the capture of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad but have been slow to accomplish this task, as Ukrainian forces have managed to keep the pace of Russian advances in Pokrovsk to a crawl.
Recall
Earlier, the "East" troop grouping reported that Russia is forced to use reserve forces to storm Pokrovsk due to significant losses, trying to infiltrate the southern part of the city and throw small groups into the central part. Ukrainian defenders are stopping the enemy's advance, actively destroying logistics and using engineering troops for defensive corridors.