In 2025, Russia's foreign trade showed further degradation - Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine

According to the results of 2025, Russia's foreign trade showed further degradation. The key factors were the fall in world energy prices and the operation of oil production quotas. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, as transmitted by UNN.

Details

According to the results of 2025, Russia's foreign trade showed further degradation against the backdrop of unfavorable price conditions and persistent restrictions. The key factors were the fall in world energy prices and the operation of oil production quotas within the framework of OPEC+ agreements, which directly hit the basic source of foreign exchange earnings.

It is noted that the share of fuel and energy goods in the export structure decreased to 54.9% from 61.6% a year earlier, which only emphasizes the weakening of the energy sector. An additional negative signal was the 10.3% drop in exports of food products and agricultural raw materials, which indicates a loss of positions even in segments that were previously considered relatively stable.

The reduction in imports was primarily due to an 8.7% decrease in the import of investment goods - machinery, equipment, and vehicles. This directly indicates a curtailment of investment activity and a deterioration of prospects for industrial modernization. Against this background, the growth of imports of widely consumed goods, including food (+14.2%) and chemical industry products (+2.6%), appears to be a forced compensation for internal imbalances, rather than a sign of economic recovery.

It is emphasized that China remains Russia's largest trading partner: it accounts for about 27% of exports and 45% of imports, which corresponds to the 2024 level. At the same time, a reduction in oil exports by 7.6% and coal by 11% was recorded in bilateral trade with China, which further weakens Moscow's position even in its key direction.

Overall, these indicators reflect the gradual and painful structural transformation of the Russian economy under the pressure of Western sanctions. A significant decrease in oil and gas exports reduces foreign exchange earnings and increases the federal budget's vulnerability to market fluctuations. The growth of chemical products and metals exports is limited, of a recovery nature, and cannot compensate for the losses of the energy sector. At the same time, the fall in imports of production equipment will hinder industrial modernization and delay economic recovery. Increased dependence on Beijing only reinforces an asymmetric model of foreign trade, in which China is increasingly acting not as a sales market, but as the main supplier of industrial products for Russia.

Recall

According to vessel tracking data, China received 22 shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) last year from two Russian export projects that are under US and EU sanctions.