Gas in Europe jumped above €100 amid the risk of renewed war with Iran
Kyiv • UNN
European gas futures rose to €103.16 per MWh due to geopolitical risks and low inventories. Storage facilities are 75% full.
European natural gas prices resumed their rise above €100 per megawatt-hour amid concerns that the United States could resume hostilities against Iran, potentially prolonging supply disruptions in the region. UNN reports this, citing Bloomberg.
Details
Dutch gas futures for delivery in December, the most actively traded contract, jumped more than 5% on Friday, October 30, after briefly declining in the previous session. Benchmark contracts were up approximately 42% on a monthly basis, marking the biggest such increase since March, immediately after the start of the war with Iran.
A number of factors converged to drive a sharp rise in prices this month, including colder weather and growing heating demand, as traders began drawing on winter fuel stocks, which are already at a seasonal low.
Geopolitical risks added to upward pressure as concerns grow that the United States could resume strikes against Iran after next week's midterm elections.
On Thursday, October 29, a senior U.S. commander briefed U.S. President Donald Trump on military options, The Wall Street Journal reported. Following the report, oil prices also rose on Friday.
Oil prices rise for the fourth consecutive month amid the war with Iran30.10.26, 08:32 • 2828 views
Meanwhile, LNG exports from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz — which accounted for about one-fifth of global capacity before the conflict began — remain significantly below prewar levels despite a recent increase, leaving the market vulnerable to the risk of a complete halt in supplies from the region.
In addition, LNG supplies from another major exporter, Australia, declined over the past month, reducing global supply and supporting prices.
What analysts say about prices
Low gas stocks in Europe and geopolitical risks "are likely to continue pushing front-month prices to new highs as concerns grow about a potential escalation in the Middle East," according to an analytical note from Energy Aspects Ltd. They expect major supply disruptions during the first quarter of 2027.
European fuel storage facilities are only 75% full, well below the normal level for this time of year, while in the largest economy, Germany, the figure is below 62%. On Thursday, an Italian government official sharply criticized Germany for insufficiently replenishing its natural gas reserves this summer, arguing that the shortage is driving up prices across Europe.
"We, too, would like to see somewhat higher gas storage levels," Klaus Müller, president of Germany's Federal Network Agency, said in an interview with local radio on Friday morning, October 30. He added that the country had made progress in diversifying its energy supply sources.
Bloomberg expects higher LNG prices to reduce demand in some price-sensitive regions in November, such as South and Southeast Asia. Europe may still have to pay more for fuel supplies, especially when colder weather and periods of weak winds increase fuel demand.
By 11:40 a.m. Amsterdam time, Dutch December futures had risen 5.3% to €103.16 per megawatt-hour.