From strikes on refineries to bank collapses: how Ukraine is transitioning to the systemic destruction of the Russian economy
Kyiv • UNN
Ukraine has changed its long-range strike strategy. Strikes on refineries, which triggered a fuel crisis, were only the first stage of destroying the economy that sustains the army.
Ukraine has changed its approach to long-range strikes on Russian territory. While previously the main goal was the destruction of oil refineries and fuel infrastructure, today Ukraine's strategy is increasingly aimed at the systemic destruction of the entire economy that supports the Russian military machine. This concerns not only energy, but also logistics, the financial sector, and enterprises that support the operation of the military-industrial complex, writes UNN.
Fuel crisis in Russia due to strikes on refineries
Since the beginning of the year, Ukrainian forces have struck over 15 Russian oil refineries, some of which have been hit repeatedly and have ceased operations. Strikes have even targeted refineries located more than 2,000 km away. Ukraine continues to hit Russian oil refining facilities, which has already led to a sharp rise in fuel prices in Russia and a shortage.
According to intelligence data, from July 1 to July 10, the average price of AI-92 gasoline at Russian gas stations rose to 64.5 rubles per liter, which is 20% higher year-on-year.
"In July, gasoline production in Russia fell to approximately 71,500 tons per day, while average summer demand is about 110,000 tons. In fact, only 65% of the demand is being met. The estimated deficit reaches about 38,500 tons per day, or 35% of total domestic consumption. Everything indicates that the Kremlin is preparing not to overcome the crisis, but for its prolonged existence," the statement reads.
In addition to Russian refineries, tankers in the Caspian and Black Seas have also been hit.
Ukraine's strike strategy is changing
According to the Financial Times, Ukraine has shifted its focus from broad attacks on Russian refineries to precision strikes on critical components that are the hardest to repair. Ukrainian military personnel, drone operators, and energy experts told the publication that the goal is no longer just to cause a fire or damage fuel tanks, but to disable enterprises for the longest possible time.
One member of a Ukrainian deep-strike unit noted that the strategy is "carefully targeted and coordinated" and fits into the concept of systemic warfare.
Before each operation, units receive consultations from engineers and energy experts who identify the most vulnerable elements of production.
"Engineers and experts tell drone units to hit 'these pipelines, or this pipe, strike here – in this space, or this part of the equipment connection, or this unit,'" the publication quotes one of the operators.
Acting Minister of Defense Yevhenii Khmara reported that together with Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi, he is working on plans to transfer the war to the aggressor's territory.
"The goal remains unchanged – the technological superiority of our army over the Russian enemy and the maximum preservation of human life through technological changes. We must scale up what we are already effective at: deep strike and middle strike, UAV systems, and other solutions that save soldiers' lives and more effectively destroy the enemy," he stated.
Former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andrii Zahorodniuk explained that Ukraine no longer views individual plants as independent targets.
"We think of Russia as a system. Understanding this system allows us to identify critical parts where the effect is much more significant," he said in a comment to the FT.
That is why Ukrainian planners analyze the interdependence between refineries, substations, transport infrastructure, and export routes, and after strikes, they re-attack the same facilities even before their repairs are completed.
The next target is Russia's financial system
According to Denys Shtilerman, the chief designer and co-owner of the Ukrainian company Fire Point, which produces long-range FP-1 drones capable of striking targets at a distance of over 3,000 km and Flamingo missiles, Ukraine has already achieved a tangible result with strikes on oil infrastructure.
"It seems to me that now this is a set of measures that should be in place. We have put a lot of pressure now. Now, when a tank of gasoline in Moscow costs 3.5 times more than it used to, when people in Moscow are forced to stand in several queues to fill up their cars, that is already something," he noted in an interview with Dmytro Gordon.
At the same time, he is convinced that this is not enough. If the first link in the Ukrainian strategy was the fuel and energy complex, then the next stage, according to Shtilerman, should be Russia's financial system.
"Now we need to finish off Wildberries and Ozon, that is a must. This will cause the collapse of the banking system – they are among the main borrowers," he explained.
According to Shtilerman, Wildberries is one of the largest corporate borrowers in Russia, and the Russian state bank VTB has bet specifically on the development of this marketplace.
"VTB was not doing very well anyway, and now trillions of rubles in loans will turn out to be irretrievably lost. And this could bring down the second largest bank in Russia. And this needs to be continued," the chief designer of Fire Point is convinced.
His words are confirmed by the financial indicators of VTB itself. The bank has already reported a deterioration in results: net profit for the first half of the year turned out to be almost 20% lower than forecast, and expectations for the second half of the year were also revised downward significantly. In addition, the bank has already begun restricting depositors' access to money.
Logistics has also become a target
In addition to the financial component, Ukrainian strikes are increasingly aimed at destroying logistics chains.
According to Denys Shtilerman, marketplaces play an important role not only for the civilian economy but also for supporting military production.
"It is no secret that a large number of drones are produced by Russia in the temporarily occupied territories. It was very important to stop these supply channels. This is all a disruption of logistics. These are very bright ideas. And we need to continue maintaining the gasoline shortage, constantly increasing it, and continue to put pressure on all the weak points that we see," he is convinced.
Wildberries has not stopped selling goods for the Russian army - CPD27.07.26, 20:50 • 37353 views
A similar logic is described by the commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert "Madyar" Brovdi, writes FT. According to him, attacks on refineries are part of a broader campaign to destroy the networks that support Russia's war effort — from oil exports that finance the army to logistics routes for supplying troops at the front.
"The goal is clear: 1) destroy the sources that finance Putin's war (oil trade - ed.), and 2) (destroy - ed.) the military-industrial complex that supplies the occupation army with weapons," he noted.
According to "Madyar", after the systematic destruction of Russian air defense systems, radar stations, and electronic warfare systems, further planning of strikes becomes "a matter of pure mathematics," when production volumes, domestic consumption, exports, and logistics are taken into account.
Consequences are tens of times more expensive than the strikes
According to Acting Minister of Defense Yevhen Khmara, the main criterion for the effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range operations is not the number of targets hit, but the ratio of the cost of the strike to the economic losses it inflicts on Russia.
"Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and innovative drone campaigns are aimed at inflicting losses on Russia that significantly exceed Ukraine's costs for their implementation," he explained in an interview with Loomered.
According to Khmara, Ukraine seeks to achieve a ratio where the cost of conducting an operation would be only about 2% of the economic damage it inflicts on the enemy.
The acting minister noted that the operation "Web" was planned precisely according to this principle – a massive drone attack on Russian strategic aviation carried out by the unit he previously commanded. Thanks to the attack with long-range drones, it was possible to destroy or damage 41 enemy aircraft.
Ukraine is increasingly shifting from a war of attrition to a war of economic coefficients, where each strike must force Russia to spend tens of times more on eliminating consequences, repairs, and maintaining the functioning of its own military economy.
The war is moving into the economic sphere
The described approach indicates that Ukraine is gradually transitioning to a new model of warfare. Its goal is not so much the physical destruction of individual military or industrial facilities, but rather the destruction of the economy that allows Russia to continue its aggression.
Targeted strikes on critical nodes of energy infrastructure, repeated attacks on repaired facilities, creating fuel shortages, disrupting logistics, and potential pressure on major marketplaces and the banking sector are elements of a unified strategy. Its logic is simple: each Ukrainian operation should cost significantly less than the consequences it creates for Russia's economy and military-industrial complex, as well as the Kremlin's ability to finance the war.