
Experts outline expectations from the US regarding the war in Ukraine after Trump's inauguration
Kyiv • UNN
The policies of Trump and his entourage have become more realistic over the past two weeks. Experts expect an adequate stance on the war in Ukraine after the inauguration and continued military assistance to Ukraine.
Over the past two weeks, the policies of President-elect Donald Trump and his entourage have become much more realistic. Therefore, after Trump's inauguration on January 20, we should expect a more adequate position on the war. After all, there is only one way to end the war in 24 hours - Kyiv's surrender. Therefore, it is good that the Trump administration no longer mentions this. This opinion was expressed by Oleksandr Kraev, an expert of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism", to the journalist of UNN.
In fact, a month ago, I would have said that quite a lot would change, I would have said that Trump remains unpredictable, it is not clear what will happen to him in the future. But now we see a slightly different picture. The last two weeks have been very revealing. During these two weeks, his policies and even more so his circle of advisors have become much more realistic
He noted that he no longer heard statements about negotiations in 24 hours with Putin and Zelensky.
"We are already seeing what [President-elect Donald Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith - ed. He said that he himself expects to achieve certain results in 100 days. That is, he did not say that in 100 days he would hold negotiations, or that in 100 days the task was to do so. He said that in 100 days it would be possible to talk about some preliminary results. The same goes for Trump. He did not say that he would be able to finish everything in six months. He said that in six months we can expect some kind of start of negotiations in this context," Kraev explained.
According to the expert, after Trump's inauguration today, January 20, we should expect a more realistic and adequate position.
Therefore, I think we should expect a more realistic, adequate position, fortunately for all of us. There is only one way to end the war in 24 hours, and that is through Ukraine's surrender. This is the only way to end the war in 24 hours, so it's very good that the Trump administration is no longer mentioning this
He also commented on the situation with military aid from the United States.
"If we are talking about the supply of weapons, the situation is also a little better, and it is better in the context that just a week and a half ago, Trump clearly said that weapons must continue to flow to Ukraine, because if these weapons do not arrive, then negotiations will not work. So this is a realistic position. Because if there are no weapons, Russia will not negotiate," Kraev said.
The expert emphasized that this is also a good signal for Ukraine that Trump understands that Kyiv will do its part.
Ukraine is ready to talk, Ukraine is ready to develop some strategies and plans, but for this, Ukraine needs to be given weapons so that the Muscovites cannot disrupt all this. That's why it seems to me that the Trump administration doesn't have a strategy right now, it doesn't exist, they are creating it now. As long as they are creating it, these first signals that we hear are actually quite positive
In addition, Kraev commented on whether there is a risk that Trump will cancel the authorization to strike deep into Russia.
"This risk is minimal, because his entourage, his advisors, have already stated that this permit should not be canceled. Mike Waltz (whom Trump wants to appoint as a national security adviser - ed.) during his last interview, where he said that the mobilization age should be lowered, said that the authorization should not be canceled, but should be expanded and Ukraine should be given new means. Not just ATACMS, but Tomahawk and American satellites for targeting. So it seems to me that in this regard, the Trump administration has become a little more realistic," Kraev said.
Vladyslav Faraponov, the founder of the Institute of American Studies, commenting for UNN on expectations after Trump's inauguration, said that the Republican administration is more practical and pragmatic in its actions and rhetoric.
In general, in particular, this administration will indeed be dominated by the America first approach, but I think Ukraine should not demonstrate that we are somehow afraid of this concept, because the America first concept does not mean that Ukraine will be surrendered. General Kellogg hints at negotiations, but he understands why Ukraine cannot enter into unfavorable negotiations for itself
According to him, the US foreign policy, in particular towards Ukraine, will now be completely determined by the Republican Party, the Republicans, for at least two years until the midterm elections in 2026.
"That is, now the Republicans will not be able to say that the Democrats are interfering with them, or that they cannot pass something because of the Democrats. Now they hold all the cards," Faraponov said.
Faraponov also noted that, in general, all decisions at the executive level made by the Joe Biden administration could potentially be canceled by the Trump administration, but this does not apply to non-refundable aid.
That is, we will definitely not have to return the aid. Literally a little less than $4 billion, so they remain at the disposal of the Trump administration
Trump and his entourage's statements about Ukraine
Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump intends to strengthen sanctions against Russia. They may be part of the strategy to end the war in Ukraine.
Reuters reported that advisers to US President-elect Trump now recognize that it will take months or more to resolve the war in Ukraine.
For example, on the eve of his victory in the November 5 election, Trump stated dozens of times that he would conclude a deal between Ukraine and Russia on his first day in office, if not sooner. However, at the end of October, he changed his rhetoric slightly and began to say that he would be able to resolve the war "very quickly.
Trump believes that a deal on Ukraine is impossible without a dialogue with Russia . He plans to work on this in the coming months.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that his team is already preparing a meeting with Trump after the inauguration.
Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, said he was convinced that Trump would be able to offer an acceptable solution to Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy "in the short term.
In early January, the visit of Kand Kellogg to Ukraine, which was planned before the inauguration of Donald Trump, was postponed.
On January 16, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga said that Ukraine expects the first official contacts with US President-elect Trump after his inauguration, as it hopes for additional chances to accelerate peace.