Experts voiced expectations from the US regarding the war in Ukraine after Trump's inauguration
Kyiv • UNN
Trump's policy and his inner circle have become more realistic over the past two weeks. Experts expect an adequate position on the war in Ukraine after the inauguration and continued military assistance to Ukraine.
Over the past two weeks, the policy of President-elect Donald Trump and his inner circle has become much more realistic. Therefore, after Trump's inauguration on January 20, a more adequate position regarding the war should be expected. After all, ending it in 24 hours is only possible in one way - the capitulation of Kyiv. Therefore, it is good that the Trump administration no longer mentions this. This opinion was expressed to a UNN journalist by Oleksandr Kraiev, an expert at the Council on Foreign Policy "Ukrainian Prism."
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In fact, a month ago, I would have said that a lot would change, I would have said that Trump indeed remains unpredictable, and it's unclear what will happen to him next. But now we see a slightly different picture. The last two weeks have been very indicative. During these two weeks, his policy and especially his circle of advisers have become much more realistic.
He noted that there are no longer any statements about negotiations within 24 hours with Putin and Zelenskyy.
We already see what (special representative of President-elect Donald Trump in Ukraine, Keith - ed.) Kellogg was talking about. He said that he himself expects to achieve certain results within 100 days. That is, he did not say that he would hold negotiations within 100 days, or that this was the task to be done within 100 days. He said that within 100 days it would be possible to talk about some preliminary results. The same applies to Trump. He did not say that he would be able to finish everything in six months. He said that in six months, one could count on some beginning of negotiations in this context.
According to the expert, after Trump's inauguration today, January 20, a more realistic and adequate position should be expected.
Therefore, it seems to me that we should expect a more realistic, adequate position, fortunately for all of us. Ending the war in 24 hours is only possible in one way - the capitulation of Ukraine. This is the only option to end the war in 24 hours, so it's very good that the Trump administration no longer mentions this.
He also commented on the situation with the provision of military assistance from the United States.
If we talk about arms supplies, the situation here is also slightly better, and it is better in the context that just a week and a half ago, Trump clearly stated that weapons to Ukraine must continue to arrive, because if these weapons do not arrive, negotiations will not work. That is a realistic position. Because if there are no weapons, Russia will not go to negotiations.
The expert emphasized that this is also a good signal for Ukraine, as Trump understands that Kyiv will do its part of the work.
Ukraine is ready to talk, Ukraine is ready to develop some strategies, plans, but for this, Ukraine needs to be given weapons so that the Muscovites, so to speak, cannot disrupt all this. Therefore, it seems to me that there is no strategy in the Trump administration right now, it does not exist, they are creating it now. Until they create it, these first signals we hear are actually quite positive.
In addition, Kraiev commented on whether there is a risk that Trump will revoke the permission to strike deep into the Russian Federation.
This risk is minimal, because his inner circle, his advisers, have already stated that this permission should not be revoked. Mike Waltz (whom Trump wants to appoint as national security adviser - ed.) during his last interview, where he announced a reduction in the mobilization age, said that the permission not only should not be revoked, but it should be expanded and Ukraine should be given new means. Not only ATACMS, Ukraine, he said, should also be given Tomahawks and American satellites for targeting. That is, it seems to me that in this regard, the (Trump - ed.) administration has become a little more realistic.
Vladyslav Faraponov, founder of the Institute of American Studies, commenting for UNN on expectations after Trump's inauguration, stated that the Republican administration is more practical and pragmatic in its actions and rhetoric.
In general, especially in this administration, the "America First" approach will indeed prevail, but in my opinion, Ukraine should not show that we are somehow afraid of this concept, because the "America First" concept does not mean that Ukraine will be abandoned. General Kellogg hints at negotiations, but he understands why Ukraine cannot enter into unfavorable negotiations for itself.
According to him, US foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine, will now be almost entirely determined by the Republican Party, by Republicans, for at least two years until the 2026 midterm elections.
That is, now Republicans will not be able to say that Democrats are hindering them, or that they cannot accept something because of Democrats. Now they have all the cards in their hands.
He also noted that, in general, all decisions at the executive level made by the Joe Biden administration could potentially be canceled by the Trump administration, but this does not apply to irreversible aid.
That is, we definitely won't have to return the aid. Literally a little less than $4 billion, they remain at the disposal of the Trump administration.
Statements by Trump and his entourage about Ukraine
Trump's candidate for Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, stated that the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump intends to strengthen sanctions against Russia. They may become part of a strategy to end the war in Ukraine.
Reuters reported that advisers to US President-elect Trump now acknowledge that settling the war in Ukraine will take months or even longer.
Thus, before his victory in the November 5 elections, Trump repeatedly stated that he would conclude an agreement between Ukraine and Russia on his first day in office, if not sooner. However, in late October, he subtly changed his rhetoric and began to say that he would be able to resolve the war "very quickly."
Trump believes that without dialogue with Russia, an agreement on Ukraine is impossible. He plans to work on this in the coming months.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that his team is already preparing a meeting with Trump after the inauguration.
Donald Trump's special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, stated that he is convinced that Trump will be able to offer an acceptable solution to Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy "in the short term."
In early January, the visit of Keith Kellogg to Ukraine, which was planned before Donald Trump's inauguration, was postponed.
On January 16, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha stated that Ukraine expects the first official contacts with US President-elect Trump after his inauguration, as it hopes for additional chances to accelerate peace.