Denmark predicts an expansion of the scale of Russia’s hybrid warfare

Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service predicts that Russia will expand the scale of its hybrid warfare against Western countries. This is stated in a new threat assessment, reports UNN. 

The security situation has deteriorated further. Russia has intensified its use of sabotage, destructive cyberattacks and drone attacks against targets in Europe. Hybrid warfare is gaining momentum. This concerns, for example, the thwarted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport, which, according to German authorities, had been planned in Russia for several months. Russia has become more willing to take risks. Russian drones, and in some cases even missiles, have been shot down in NATO countries bordering Ukraine

The intelligence service expects Russia to escalate its hybrid warfare even further. 

Until now, Russia has primarily carried out hybrid attacks against targets in the West in order to sow fear and reduce public support for Ukraine. Russia has increasingly sought to directly disrupt the delivery of this support, for example by sabotaging defence industry facilities or railways used to transport military equipment to Ukraine. The intelligence service assesses that in the coming months Russia will intensify its hybrid warfare even further, carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO that will have more serious consequences for the affected countries than before. This could, for example, include destructive cyberattacks with serious consequences for vital societal functions and sabotage attacks carrying a high risk of casualties

The intelligence service also noted that there is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia. This could happen even if Russia continues its war against Ukraine and does not develop the necessary capabilities to wage a regional war.

A limited military attack would be a desperate step on Russia’s part and, like the escalation of hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months. The aim of such an attack would be to divert European resources from supporting Ukraine and divide NATO if the alliance is unable to agree on a joint response

The intelligence service predicts that a limited military attack could, for example, take the form of isolated Russian long-range strikes against infrastructure that plays an important role in providing support to Ukraine. Russia could subsequently claim that the missiles struck NATO territory exclusively because their trajectory had been altered by Ukraine. It could also involve a so-called “false flag” operation, in which Russia, for example, uses Ukrainian-made drones to attack a NATO country.

We remind you

Russia has launched a new wave of attacks on European weapons manufacturing plants under the guise of plausible deniability.