For years, Moscow launched missiles at Ukraine almost as fast as it could produce them. But now Russia is producing enough of them to accumulate an increasingly large stockpile of long-range weapons, US Army Minister Daniel Driscoll told diplomats, according to the NYT, citing two Western officials, UNN reports.
Details
According to these officials, the hint was obvious: a quick resolution of the war was needed due to the growing missile threat, which could deal a devastating blow to Ukraine and spread beyond its borders.
While Russia is considered unlikely to significantly slow down weapons production even if the war ends, ending the invasion of Ukraine could deprive Moscow of a potential justification for launching missiles or drones at other European countries.
Western officials who attended the meeting with Driscoll on Friday, November 21, and spoke to the New York Times on condition of anonymity, called Russia's military buildup alarming and said the US minister's warning resonated.
Traditionally, the United States would likely criticize Russia for stockpiling weapons rather than using the fact of weapons production in Russia as a way to sell a peace deal unfavorable to the victim of Russian aggression.
The new dynamics of missile production in Russia have become the backdrop for a new wave of efforts by the Trump administration to end the war, which continues this week as the US Army Minister prepares to return to Kyiv for further talks. Driscoll, an associate of US Vice President J.D. Vance, has become an unexpected leader of American diplomacy in peace talks on Ukraine.
The Trump administration's argument that Russia has the upper hand in the war and that Ukraine should agree to a peace deal as soon as possible remains valid.
The US assessment that Moscow is stockpiling missiles, which is confirmed by Ukrainian military intelligence data and analysts' calculations, indicates important changes in the Russian defense industry.
Analysts say Russia could use its stockpiles to destroy Ukraine's already damaged energy infrastructure. It could gradually deplete Ukraine's air defense missile stockpiles and make areas like Kyiv vulnerable. Russia could also threaten other European countries with missile or UAV attacks.
The warning about growing missile stockpiles is a complete opposite of the situation a year ago. Evidence that Moscow was launching missiles as soon as they were produced was the strike on a children's hospital in Kyiv in July 2024. Investigators who examined the debris found missile components manufactured only a few months ago.
Newer missile components and arms imports from North Korea and Iran led to conclusions that at the time, Russia was fighting at or near the limits of its military-industrial capabilities.
However, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, by June of this year, Russia had expanded its industrial capacity to 2,900 cruise and ballistic missiles per year. This figure includes Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, and Kalibr cruise missiles, as well as anti-ship missiles that the Russians have repurposed to strike ground targets in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a gradual increase in the number of missile strikes. According to an analysis of Air Force data conducted by The Times, last year Russia launched 2,061 cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukraine, and plans to launch even more this year.
But even with the increasing intensity of shelling, Russia still has hundreds of additional missiles in storage.
"Launches are not keeping up with production," says Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert at the University of Oslo.
According to him, Russia may be replenishing its stockpiles in case of unforeseen circumstances, such as a military conflict outside Ukraine, or to increase pressure on Kyiv.
Recall
On November 20, Axios published a 28-point peace plan by US President Donald Trump between Ukraine and Russia, which provides for territorial concessions, restrictions on the Ukrainian armed forces, certain US guarantees, and economic components.
Against this background, Ukraine and the United States began negotiations in Geneva. The negotiations lasted on November 23 and 24. As a result, the initial 28-point US peace plan was reduced to 19 points.
The Ukrainian delegation, after a meeting with the US in Geneva, stated that there is "a common understanding of the key terms of the agreement," and a visit by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the US "at the earliest possible date in November" to reach an agreement with Trump is expected.
This comes amid reports that Trump pressured Zelenskyy for a deal before the American Thanksgiving Day, November 27, although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the deadline flexible.
The President's Office stated that any discussions of territorial issues would likely take place at a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants to meet with US President Donald Trump "as soon as possible" to finalize work on a peace agreement.