What is the threat of a possible termination of US aid to Ukraine: ISW explained

Termination of US military assistance will strengthen Russia's position, threatening Ukraine's territorial losses and European security. This will push Putin to escalate and show that Washington is not ready to defend its allies. This was written by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.  

The New York Times and The Washington Post, citing unnamed senior Trump administration officials, reported on February 28 that the White House is considering canceling all military aid to Ukraine, including the final deliveries approved by previous US President Joe Biden.

Thanks to critical U.S. assistance, Ukrainian forces are inflicting irreparable losses on Russian forces while also holding back their limited successes. This situation, coupled with the serious challenges Russia will face in 2025, gives the United States significant leverage in peace negotiations

Ending military support for Ukraine would encourage Russian President Putin to make even greater demands and reinforce his belief that he can win the war completely. ISW has repeatedly emphasized the importance of timely and uninterrupted Western military assistance to Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are actively using U.S. military systems, including Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, and ATACMS long-range missiles, to repel Russian nighttime drone and missile attacks, enhance strike capabilities, complicate Russian logistics and command, and undermine their defense industry.

Termination of U.S. military aid and funding aimed at strengthening Ukraine's defense industry could change the balance of the war in favor of Russia, increasing the likelihood of its victory.

Russia will use this to seize more Ukrainian territory and deplete European support for Ukraine, a strategy Putin has identified as the basis for his victory.

The U.S. withdrawal of support for Ukraine and Russia's further successes will embolden Putin and strengthen his belief that he can fully control Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries, including those that are NATO members.

The Kremlin is likely to intensify its military campaign in Ukraine and try to exploit any delay or termination of US military aid - as it already did in the spring of 2024. Reducing aid to Ukraine could also weaken US influence in the world and embolden its adversaries. Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China have formed a bloc aimed at confronting the US and its allies.

They are currently testing the limits of American commitments to allies in Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region. During a phone conversation with Putin at the end of February 2025, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said that Sino-Russian relations are "unshakable" and do not depend on "the influence of third parties.

Russia signed strategic partnership agreements with China in May 2023, with North Korea in October 2024, and with Iran in January 2025. Putin continues to use Iranian drones, North Korean ballistic missiles, and military contingent in the war against Ukraine.

The ISW also writes that Putin, not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, remains the main obstacle to a lasting peace treaty.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly reaffirmed his commitment to achieving a just and sustainable peace through negotiations. In a recent interview with Fox News, he reiterated that he is ready to compromise on territories, Ukraine's membership in NATO, and even his own tenure in order to achieve a just peace. 

Instead, Putin and his entourage keep insisting on the original goals of the war: the complete surrender of Ukraine, the change of power to a pro-Russian government, and its neutralization. They try to present these demands as "readiness for negotiations" in order to obtain concessions from the United States. 

The Kremlin has also launched a new information campaign aimed at dissuading the West from further assistance to Ukraine, claiming that Russia has already won. on March 1, the Russian news agency TASS asked former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl whether Russia had won the war.

She replied that "Russia won in the sense that it was not defeated." This rhetoric is part of a broader Kremlin strategy to portray Russia's victory as inevitable and to convince the West to stop supporting Ukraine.

Despite this, European countries remain committed to supporting the Ukrainian army and defense industry. On February 28, the Norwegian company Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace announced the establishment of a joint venture in Ukraine to mass-produce NASAMS missiles. On March 1, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer assured Zelenskyy of the UK's "full support".

Recall

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged Zelenskyy to restore his relations with Trump and the US administration.