Russia has problems with army replenishment - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
Monthly conscription to the Russian army does not cover the losses of the military at the front. Members of the State Duma justify the refusal to mobilize again, despite staffing problems.
The monthly conscription to the Russian army is probably equal to or lower than the number needed to replace Russia's monthly losses in the war against Ukraine one to one. These data were published in an analytical report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports .
Details
It is noted that Russian officials continue to justify the Kremlin's decision not to hold a forced conscription at this time, despite signs that the Russian army is struggling to recruit enough new personnel to replace high losses.
The head of the State Duma Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, said on February 4 that Russia does not need to conduct another partial forced conscription into the reserve, as Russia currently has "an advantage on the battlefield."
State Duma Defense Committee member Viktor Sobolev added that 740,000 people have signed contracts for military service in the Russian army - presumably since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 - and said that mobilization "will only worsen the situation" by sending people to the front without prior military experience or specialized skills.
First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Krasov also said that mobilization is not necessary, as Russian military commissars are allegedly successfully recruiting new personnel.
Russian Duma deputies argue that Russia's conscription figures are sufficient to assuage Russian public fears of a widely unpopular potential new partial involuntary conscription
However, the report adds, the Russian military may have difficulty recruiting enough new soldiers.
In late 2024 and January 2025, ISW received reports that monthly conscription into the Russian army was likely equal to or lower than the number needed to replace Russia's monthly one-to-one losses
ISW has also received reports that some Russian federal entities are unable to meet their monthly conscription quotas because citizens are less willing to volunteer to fight.
On February 3, the Russian Ministry of Defense proposed draft amendments that would change the classification of certain diseases, illnesses, and disorders for military personnel serving in regular service, as well as for those who sign conscription contracts.
The Russian Defense Ministry has proposed to reclassify syphilis, hypertension, atrophic disorders of the central nervous system, skin diseases, schizophrenia, psychotic disorders, mood disorders and other health problems as milder illnesses that do not deprive one of the right to serve
The Institute for War Studies also reported that the Russian Defense Ministry will make it more difficult for conscripts to obtain an exemption from military service for health reasons and will complicate the procedure for discharging mobilized and contracted servicemen.
ISW's key findings for February 4:
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi visited a power substation in Kyiv region on February 4 to assess the damage as Russian long-range strikes on energy infrastructure continue to threaten Ukraine's nuclear power plants and energy production capabilities.
- Russian officials continue to justify the Kremlin's decision not to conduct a forced conscription despite signs that the Russian military is struggling to attract enough new personnel to replace high losses.
- The Russian occupation authorities continue to discuss the possible illegal occupation of the Kharkiv region, but claim that Ukraine's counteroffensive in September 2022 in the Kharkiv region ruined Russia's plans to hold a “referendum” in the region at that time.
- A significant number of Russian ships that have been in the port of Tartus in recent weeks may have left Syria and returned to Russia, as Russian-Syrian negotiations on Russia's continued access to its bases in Syria are reportedly ongoing.
- Ukrainian drone strikes have probably forced Russia to radically change the routes of Russian ships between Russia and Syria.
- Russia is also reportedly using vessels belonging to the Defense Ministry's Oboronlogistika company to monitor NATO vessels in the Baltic Sea.
- Recently, Russian troops advanced near Kupyansk.
- A Kremlin-affiliated Russian blogger claims that Russian troops in the Seversky direction continue to struggle with systemic problems and that field commanders are submitting false progress reports despite recent changes in command.
Recall
The President of Ukraine has said that the country needs protection while waiting to join NATO. Among the options are nuclear weapons, missile systems, or a contingent of other countries' troops.
Ukrainian Defense Forces regain positions near Nadiivka - DeepState05.02.25, 02:08 • 32079 views
