Russia conducts unannounced nuclear exercises to distract from weakness on the front line - ISW

Russia is using unannounced strategic nuclear exercises to project strength to Ukraine's allies and distract from its own "growing" vulnerabilities on the battlefield. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports.

Details

It is noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on May 19 that the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, Northern and Pacific Fleets, Long-Range Aviation Command, and certain units of the Leningrad and Central Military Districts would conduct exercises from May 19 to 21 on the preparation and use of nuclear forces in response to the threat of aggression.

Russia had not previously announced nuclear exercises for May 19-21 and is conducting them much earlier this year than its typical air, land, and sea nuclear drills (unofficially the "Grom" exercises), which Russia has conducted annually in October since 2022. The Russian armed forces last conducted surprise nuclear exercises in the summer of 2024, focusing on non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons, likely to influence Western political debates regarding the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine,

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They emphasize that the Kremlin is also repeating long-standing threats against NATO "consistent with these exercises." At the same time, the Russians are intensifying narratives aimed at influencing NATO decision-making and masking their own weaknesses.

Russian forces have so far failed to achieve significant gains in their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative in several sectors of the frontline, and Russian forces have failed to protect Russia's deep rear from increasingly devastating Ukrainian strikes,

They conclude that Russian officials may blame NATO countries for escalation concurrently with the exercises, attempting to exercise reflexive control—a tactic that involves shaping an adversary through targeted rhetoric and information operations so that the adversary voluntarily takes actions beneficial to Russia, in order to divide Ukraine from its European partners and reduce support for Kyiv's defense efforts.

As a reminder

The day before, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the start of exercises to prepare for the use of nuclear forces "under the threat of aggression."

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