Oil prices are falling amid forecasts of a record supply surplus and improving US-Iran relations
Kyiv • UNN
Oil is getting cheaper amid IEA forecasts of a record surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day by 2026. The softening of US rhetoric towards Iran also affects prices.
As of February 16, the oil market is showing negative dynamics, as investors react to reports of a significant surplus of raw materials and the diplomatic efforts of the Donald Trump administration regarding a nuclear deal with Tehran. The decline in quotations follows a long period of volatility, when geopolitical risks in the Middle East temporarily supported the high cost of energy. This is reported by Bloomberg, writes UNN.
Details
The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed its forecasts, according to which in 2026 the global oil surplus will amount to more than 3.7 million barrels per day, which will be an absolute historical record.
Increased production by OPEC+ countries and the active growth of stocks, which began last year, are creating significant pressure on prices amid moderate demand growth in OECD countries.
The impact of diplomacy and the Iran factor on quotes
The price of Brent crude oil stabilized at around $67-68 per barrel, losing a significant part of its "war premium." Bloomberg analysts note that the market is pricing in a softening of US rhetoric towards Iran, as the duration of negotiations on a new nuclear deal could stretch for a month. This reduces the likelihood of immediate military action or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously caused fears of supply disruptions.
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