India and Pakistan: Political scientist explains whether a new war is brewing and how it will affect Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
The escalation of the conflict between India and Pakistan is now more beneficial for Ukraine than in 2022, when dependence on the United States was greater. The expert believes that this may lead to a fall in oil prices, which will hit Russia.
Tensions between India and Pakistan continue to rise. The parties accuse each other of armed provocations on the border. Yesterday, April 29, Pakistani intelligence said that India could attack within the next 24-36 hours. Political scientist Taras Zahorodniy explained to the UNN correspondent about the history of the conflict between these two nuclear powers, the reasons for the current escalation, and what Ukraine should expect.
India and Pakistan: the history of an unresolved conflict
Tensions between Pakistan and India began at the beginning of their independence, which they gained in 1947. The division took place on religious grounds – Pakistan is inhabited by Muslims, and India is predominantly Hindu. They constantly clashed, primarily over the disputed Kashmir, there were three wars (the last in 1971). And even after these wars, clashes regularly occurred on the border
The political scientist noted that for some time the relations between India and Pakistan did not worry the major international players, but in 1974 India became a nuclear power, and in 1998 Pakistan received such status.
"Pakistan has for some time leaned towards the United States, especially when the war in Afghanistan began, and India was more under the influence of first the Soviet Union, then Russia. In addition, China has its own interest here, which is not interested in strengthening India as an economic giant," the expert noted.
Zahorodniy stressed that the escalation of the conflict right now was influenced by the US decision to stop playing the role of a world policeman, which untied the hands of other major powers.
The US is abandoning the role of world policeman, and as a result, China is trying to influence this region, in particular, to weaken India. I also do not rule out that Russia could have carried out some provocation in order to create another point of tension in the world and divert its allies from Ukraine
According to the expert, it is now difficult to predict further developments – there may be a settlement of the conflict, or another war may begin.
"Further developments will show time," the political scientist said briefly.
What Ukraine should expect
"It is better for Ukraine that this started now, and not in 2022. At the beginning of the Russian invasion, we were much more dependent on the United States, and there was also uncertainty about the position of European allies. Now everything is completely different – we are building our own military-industrial complex, we can strike at Russia, European countries involve us in their defense programs. This is a difficult situation, but it is not catastrophic," the expert summarized.
Zahorodniy also clarified that further escalation of this conflict could provoke another drop in oil prices, which could turn into serious problems for Russia.
Let us remind you
Last week in the Kashmir region, militants opened fire on a group of tourists. According to law enforcement, 26 people died and 17 were injured. In response, India banned Pakistani citizens from entering on special visas, and all military advisers of the Pakistani mission in India were declared persona non grata.
Pakistan, in turn, stopped trade with India, and also suspended visas for Indian citizens and expelled Indian diplomats.
The Ministry of Defense of Pakistan stated that military invasion of neighboring India is inevitable after the attack of Pakistani militants on tourists in Kashmir.
Tensions are rising, Pakistani and Indian forces clashed on the border in Jammu. Pakistan calls on the UN for restraint from India after the terrorist attacks and mutual restrictions.
