Europe is working on a plan to replace the US in NATO in 5-10 years - FT
Kyiv • UNN
The largest military powers in Europe are developing a plan to gradually take over more responsibility for the defense of the continent. This should avoid the chaos of a unilateral US withdrawal from NATO.
The largest military powers in Europe are developing a plan to gradually take over more responsibility for the defense of the continent instead of the United States. This is reported by the Financial Times with reference to sources, reports UNN.
According to the FT, Great Britain, France, Germany and the countries of Northern Europe are participating in informal discussions regarding a managed transfer.
Europe's largest military forces are developing plans to take on more responsibility for the continent's defense from the US, including the Trump administration's proposal for a managed handover over the next five to ten years
It is noted that these discussions are an attempt to avoid the chaos of a unilateral US withdrawal from NATO, the fear caused by President Donald Trump's repeated threats to weaken or withdraw from the transatlantic alliance that has protected Europe for nearly eight decades.
According to four European officials, Great Britain, France, Germany and the Scandinavian countries are among the countries participating in informal but structured discussions. Their goal is to develop a plan to shift the financial and military burden to European capitals and present it to the US ahead of the annual NATO leaders' summit in The Hague in June.
The proposal would include firm commitments to increase European defense spending and build up military capabilities to convince Trump to agree to a gradual transfer that would allow the US to focus more on Asia.
It is noted that the United States, which spends more on defense than all other NATO allies combined, is indispensable for European security.
The FT notes that in addition to its nuclear deterrent, which is aimed at protecting Europe with several European air forces carrying US nuclear weapons, it provides military capabilities that continental allies do not possess, manages air, naval and military bases, and has 80,000 troops stationed in Europe.
Countries, including Germany, France and Britain, have moved to increase their defense spending or accelerated already planned increases since Trump's election, while the EU has come up with initiatives for its member states to accelerate military investment increases.
Officials estimate that it will take approximately five to ten years of these increased expenditures to raise European potential to the level where it could replace most US powers, with the exception of US nuclear deterrence.
"Increasing costs is the only way out we have: burden-sharing and a shift in emphasis depending on the US. We are starting these negotiations, but it is such a big task that many are overwhelmed by its scale," said one of the officials.
It is reported that while American diplomats have assured their European counterparts that Trump remains committed to NATO membership and Article 5 on mutual defense, many European capitals are worried that the White House may decide to quickly reduce the deployment of its troops or equipment or abandon joint NATO tasks.
According to the FT, some capitals were reluctant to participate in negotiations on burden-shifting, fearing that they would encourage the US to move faster, officials said, believing that, despite the rhetoric, Trump has no intention of making significant changes to the country's presence in Europe. Others are skeptical that his administration will agree to a structured process at all, given its unpredictable nature.
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"You need an agreement with the Americans, and it's not clear whether they will want to make it. Can you trust them to fulfill it at all?" - said another official.
Officials point to the ongoing and regular discussions that France and Great Britain are conducting on the formation of a "coalition of the willing" to support Ukraine in its war against Russia and invest in European defense, as an indication of the direction of movement. These discussions between more than a dozen European defense powers do not involve the United States.
Asked what a European pillar in NATO means and whether it is possible, a third high-ranking Western official replied: "We see it right now: Britain and France are taking the initiative (to create support forces for Ukraine - ed.) without the Americans."
NATO officials argue that maintaining the alliance with less or no US participation was much easier than creating a new structure, given the difficulty of reproducing or revising existing military plans to protect the continent, goals and rules regarding capabilities, command structure and Article 5.
It is noted that the basic defense of Europe will always require Great Britain and other Atlantic naval forces, the countries of Northern Europe for the north of the continent, and Turkey for the south-eastern defense, officials say: NATO membership is already there.
"Even without the US, NATO provides a structure for security cooperation in Europe," said Marion Messmer, a senior fellow in international security at Chatham House.
According to her, there are aspects that will need to be replaced if the US refuses.
"However, it provides a structure and infrastructure that Europeans are really familiar with... It does a lot of the work that you would have to do from scratch if you were going to create another structure just for European members," Messmer added.
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