EU made another attempt before the summit to force Orban to unblock €90 billion loan to Ukraine - what is known
Kyiv • UNN
António Costa urged Viktor Orbán to fulfill his December commitments regarding the loan. The EU proposes repairing the Druzhba oil pipeline to break the deadlock.
Talks between European Council President António Costa and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Tuesday were "a long conversation, without a breakthrough," but the message from Brussels was clear — the commitments Orbán made in December, when EU leaders agreed on a €90 billion loan for Ukraine, must be fulfilled and quickly, Politico reports. Meanwhile, Bulgarian BNR writes, citing an EU source, that "the loan for Ukraine has been agreed upon and will not be reviewed," UNN reports.
Details
"Two days before Thursday's European Council summit, Brussels played what looks like its last card to persuade Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to unblock a €90 billion loan to Ukraine: the revival of the 'Druzhba' pipeline repair scenario. Now the question is: will it be enough?" the publication states.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa announced on Tuesday what "sounded like a breakthrough: Ukraine has now accepted an EU-backed pipeline repair plan." This could pave the way for the resumption of Russian oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia, resolving one of Budapest's main grievances, the publication writes.
The Hungarian Prime Minister, who faces crucial elections next month that could end his 16-year rule, made a rare move by rejecting the European Council agreement in December and blocking elements of the loan to Ukraine that require unanimity among EU members.
"The latest EU move is not entirely new – Ukraine's acceptance is the key development. But it does hint that Brussels wants to call Orbán's bluff, as the prime minister's evasiveness is seen as driven by his electoral priorities. The problem is that by hoping for Orbán's concessions, Brussels risks showing its own weakness after several weeks of signaling stronger options," the publication notes.
"The phrase 'Trump Always Chickens Out' or TACO is used to refer to US President Donald Trump backing down from his infamous destructive tariff threats, often in response to falling markets (hence: TACO Tuesdays). Orbán has a similar track record, often lifting vetoes at the last minute – as in the case of the famous 'coffee break' during the decision to start Ukraine's accession negotiations. This has become a working assumption in Brussels: Orbán always chickens out," the publication states.
As the publication writes, Orbán recently stood firm, vetoing both the 20th package of sanctions against Russia and the loan to Ukraine.
Costa spoke with him again on Tuesday morning – a long conversation, without a breakthrough. The message from Brussels remains clear: the commitments Orbán made in December must now be fulfilled… and quickly
As noted, "some officials believe that the pipeline investigation could provide a face-saving way out of the deadlock." "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also 'toned down' his rhetoric, one EU official said, after his veiled threat to Orbán earlier this month drew a rebuke from the European Commission," the publication writes. Three senior EU officials said that, "in their opinion, Orbán may now be looking for a way out."
"Others don't believe it," the publication notes. When asked, one diplomat admitted his pessimism, pointing to how Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called von der Leyen's pipeline move "political theater." "Budapest is not inclined to blink," the diplomat said.
"Everyone got what they wanted, which is to say, nothing so far," as another diplomat put it.
The situation, they said, boils down to several scenarios. The December consensus on the loan could theoretically remain in force, but without implementation; or it could remain blocked until the elections. Both scenarios are fraught with uncertainty
Hungary may decide to continue its tactical confrontation. In an interview before Tuesday's statement by von der Leyen and Costa, Hungarian EU Affairs Minister János Bóka "made it clear about openness regarding the technical aspects of the pipeline investigation and the European Commission's guidance, but insisted on the involvement of Hungarian and Slovak experts." These are details that Brussels needs to sort out, the publication writes.
Meanwhile, Bulgarian BNR writes, citing an EU source, that "the loan for Ukraine has been agreed upon and will not be reviewed."
"I expect that the decision on the 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine will be made very soon," a diplomatic source in the EU told BNR.
He reported that on Tuesday morning, "European Council President António Costa had a conversation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, to whom he clearly stated that he must adhere to the decision of the European leaders in December, in which he also participated."
"The loan for Ukraine has been agreed upon and will not be reviewed," the source emphasized. He assured that the surge in fuel prices due to the war in Iran is alarming, but not on the scale it was in 2022, and cited the example of gas prices, which are now $50 per MWh, while then exceeding $350.
At Thursday's meeting, leaders will discuss the war in Iran, Ukraine, the consequences of high energy prices, and ways to combat them. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address the leaders via video message.