Mykolaiv Oblast could be fully liberated – expert assesses prospects for de-occupation of the Kinburn Spit
Kyiv • UNN
There are no signs of a Russian withdrawal from the Kinburn Spit; only rotation is possible. Ukrainian drones are increasing pressure on the occupiers' logistics in the southern direction.
The Kinburn Spit remains the last occupied part of the Mykolaiv region and is of great strategic importance. Control over this territory affects the safety of navigation in the area of the Dnieper-Bug estuary and access to the ports of Mykolaiv. At the same time, experts urge not to rush to conclusions regarding the rapid de-occupation of the region.
Can the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberate the entire Mykolaiv region, what is actually happening on the Kinburn Spit, and do recent reports of Russian troop problems indicate preparations for a retreat? After the appearance of information from the "ATESH" movement about the occupiers' logistics difficulties and the possible abandonment of certain positions on the spit, this topic is once again in the spotlight.
Military-political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko, in a comment for UNN, explained how serious the problems of Russian logistics are, whether the occupiers might leave the Kinburn Spit, and what role Ukrainian middle-strike drones play in changing the situation at the front.
Are the Russians preparing to retreat from the Kinburn Spit?
According to Kovalenko, there are currently insufficient signs to speak of Russian troops preparing for a full withdrawal from the Kinburn Spit.
"For now, I would not rush to any overly positive conclusions. These could be certain rotational measures, redeployment, or other internal processes. We do not yet see enough signs that the Russians have actually made a decision to leave the Kinburn Spit. Although, of course, it cannot be ruled out that they are acting ahead of events, understanding the prospects for their grouping,"
The expert did not shy away from irony regarding the situation on the Kinburn Spit. According to him, it is currently insect season there, so theoretically, the occupiers could have been "gotten to" by more than just Ukrainian strikes.
"It is currently exactly the season for insects and mosquitoes on the Kinburn Spit. Therefore, perhaps they have bitten the Russians so much that they decided to flee from there,"
The military observer emphasized that the pressure on Russian logistics in the Kherson region has not yet reached the level already observed in the south of the Zaporizhzhia region.
"If we compare the current pressure on Russian logistics in the Kherson region with what is happening on the highways in the south of the Zaporizhzhia region, it is not yet the same level. Serious crisis phenomena for Russian supplies have already formed there. In the Kherson region, we are also working on the enemy's logistics, but so far it is not on such a scale,"
Why the Kinburn Spit is difficult to hold
The expert points out that the very geography of the Kinburn Spit creates serious difficulties for any army.
"The Kinburn Spit is a very unfavorable territory for stationing troops. If we talk about the area of Pokrovske, Vasylivka, or other settlements, supplies there are carried out through effectively one logistical artery. And directly on the spit itself, the Russians often use not even road transport, but helicopters to deliver ammunition, fuel, and other resources,"
According to him, difficulties with supplies would also arise for Ukrainian units in the event of control over this territory.
"This is a very difficult territory to hold. And not only for the Russians. If Ukrainian units were there, they would also face serious challenges regarding supplies. That is why any operation on the Kinburn Spit should be considered not as a local action, but as part of a broader plan,"
Is a Ukrainian landing possible?
In Kovalenko's opinion, any operation to liberate the Kinburn Spit should be aimed not at holding a separate bridgehead, but at creating conditions under which the enemy will be forced to retreat.
"If we are talking about a serious operation on the Kinburn Spit, it must force the enemy to retreat immediately. A repetition of the Krynky scenario would be a mistake. Krynky played its role in a certain period of the war, but now we have other tools and must act more effectively,"
The key factor, according to the expert, should be the destruction of the supply system of the occupation forces.
"We need to do more than just enter one settlement and hold it. We need to create a situation of total logistical collapse for the Russians. Cut off communications, disrupt the supply system, and force them to lose the ability to command troops. Only then can we talk about the prospect of expanding control zones,"
How middle-strike drones affect the situation at the front
Separately, the expert drew attention to the role of Ukrainian middle-range strike drones, which are increasingly actively affecting Russian logistics.
"We are already seeing results in the south of the Zaporizhzhia region. Russian logistics are under serious pressure. Trucks, fuel tankers, and supply vehicles are burning. They have even started using civilian transport to carry resources, but this does not save the situation,"
According to Kovalenko, the Russians are trying to find ways to protect themselves from such strikes, but their capabilities remain limited.
"Counteraction can be active or passive. Passive includes mobile fire groups, stretching nets over roads, and increasing route security. But you can't cover all the roads with nets. Active counteraction is the creation of their own middle-strike means for strikes on Ukrainian logistics. But here they have a problem: they do not yet have such technological solutions,"
Why the south is particularly vulnerable for Russia
Kovalenko believes that the southern direction could become one of the most problematic for the Russian grouping due to limited opportunities for maneuver and supply.
"Compared to the Donetsk or Luhansk regions, the Russians have significantly fewer opportunities for maneuver in the south. Behind them are the Azov and Black Seas. They have limited logistical corridors. And Crimea could be completely isolated altogether,"
In his opinion, the gradual destruction of logistical routes could have strategic consequences.
"The logistical lockdown that is currently gradually forming could lead to very serious consequences for the Russian grouping. If this process is scaled and deepened, it is capable of significantly changing the situation at the front,"
Is a pause in the war needed now?
Commenting on discussions regarding possible negotiations or a temporary cessation of hostilities, Kovalenko warned against giving Russia time to restore resources.
"If we give the Russians a pause now, they will try to adapt, find countermeasures, restore logistics, and accumulate resources. We must not give them such an opportunity. Today, it is Ukraine that is gradually gaining an advantage thanks to strikes on the enemy's rear,"
Summarizing, the expert emphasized that the prospects for restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity increasingly depend not only on classic offensive operations but also on the ability to systematically destroy the enemy's logistics.
"In 2022, the 1991 borders were associated with counter-offensives. Today, they are associated with our dominance in the enemy's near-rear zone and the gradual destruction of their logistics. We see how Russia is losing the ability to maintain the pace of war it had before. That is why the topic of restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity should once again sound actively in the information space. The logistical lockdown we are currently creating for the enemy is capable of leading to very serious changes at the front in the future,"