Will there be no dollar at 46? Expert comments on the budget declaration for 2025-2027

Over the past three to four years, the government has not been able to maintain the exchange rate set in the budget, and the price of the currency has been lower than the one set in the document. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to UNN by economic expert Oleh Hetman.

Earlier it became known that the Budget Declaration  for 2025-2027 envisages a dollar price of 46.4 hryvnia. 

Every year, the government sets a certain exchange rate in its budget for the next year, and for the last 3-4 years it has never been able to maintain it. The actual exchange rate has always been lower than the budgeted one. This was the case last year and the year before. So the government does not guess and this has been the practice for the last 4 years

According to him, the dollar has now risen in value, as there is a large imbalance between exports and imports  - about $30 billion.

But recently, this trend has started to improve and this imbalance has started to decrease. So in order to reduce this imbalance, so that there is not such a large outflow of currency - usually all developed countries act in a single way - they weaken their currency a little bit, literally by 10%. To make imports a little more expensive and less interesting to consumers, and to make domestic goods and exports more interesting. So, in this way, the only reasonable argument the government can have is to reduce the trade balance in order to reduce the burden on our gold and foreign exchange reserves, to spend less money on our international partners, who are now keeping the hryvnia stable

At the same time, he said, if the National Bank decides that this is not advisable, the NBU, as the only major player in the foreign exchange market, can continue to keep the exchange rate at 41-42 hryvnia to the dollar for several more years if it so desires.

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Earlier, Olena Sosedka, co-founder of Ukraine's first fintech ecosystem Concord Fintech Solutions, in an exclusive interview with UNN , did not rule out that the price per dollar  could rise  to 44 hryvnias by the end of the year.

According to her, the main factors affecting the currency market are the foreign economic, political and military situation in our country. In addition, the exchange rate will largely depend on the ability of Ukrainian producers to export their goods. Sosiedka also spoke about the difficulties  the NBU faces in managing the hryvnia exchange rate, balancing between devaluation to support exports and measures to curb inflation in the face of the ongoing war.

Sosiedka has previously noted that the future of the Ukrainian banking system is the subject of active discussion among economists and officials. One of the strategies for developing the system is to concentrate bank capital and privatize state-owned banks. It should be understood that the banking system does not exist on its own - it is a "litmus test of the level of economic development of a country and the trends that are cultivated in it." Therefore, among the important issues facing the banking system today, the expert noted the provision of clear and uniform rules for the banking sector, for example, effective monitoring of banking transactions and other important conditions for the development of the industry.

In general, Olena Sosedka believes that the Ukrainian banking sector needs to change, especially when implementing the Open Banking-2025 concept , which is a completely new role model for our market. These issues relate not only to legal but also to technical aspects, such as unified standards and ways to control technical processes. In particular, this is important for the implementation of the same open banking concept approved by the National Bank of Ukraine.