What kind of winter to expect this year: forecasts
Kyiv • UNN
Natalia Ptukha, a forecaster at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, reported ground frosts in some regions of Ukraine and upcoming frosts in the west. She noted that a transition to meteorological autumn is currently being recorded, and there are no forecasts for winter yet.
The first autumn cold weather has arrived in Ukraine, and Ukrainians have to take out their autumn jackets and hats from their wardrobes. When to expect the first snow, and what the weather will be like in winter, explained Natalia Ptukha, a forecaster at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, in a comment to a UNN journalist.
Details
Frosts in Ukraine
"In certain regions across parts of Ukraine, we already observed frosts last week. Frosts were mainly on the soil surface. In some regions, in the northern areas of Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions, they were even in the air. Now, along with the cold air mass, cloudiness with atmospheric fronts, moisture, and precipitation have arrived, so the frosts have receded, there is no talk of them, but the temperature indicators remain low, only from 2 to 9 degrees Celsius at night," explained Ptukha.
The forecaster also added that the next frosts are expected in the western regions of Ukraine, as well as in Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia regions. It is predicted that the frosts will be on the soil surface.
"The next frosts may occur on the night of the second, on the night of the third of October. In the western, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia regions, frosts, for now, we predict, will be on the soil surface. The rest of the territory is in more favorable conditions without frosts, but further, on October 4, in principle, in the northwestern part, there may be frosts on the soil surface," said Natalia Ptukha.
When winter comes
According to the forecaster, it is too early to say when winter will come to Ukraine, as forecasters are only beginning to record the transition to meteorological autumn. Natalia Ptukha added that only in the last week has a decrease in weather to less than 15 degrees Celsius begun to be recorded.
There are no forecasts now when there will be a transition to winter weather. We have only transitioned to autumn weather, because last week, before the temperature dropped, it was still meteorological summer, the average daily temperature at most meteorological stations in Ukraine was +15 degrees and above, and only now has it started to be below 15 degrees. Most likely, in the coming days, our specialists will begin to record the official transition to meteorological autumn. Therefore, it is too early to talk about winter, we are only now transitioning to autumn weather.
What weather to expect in winter
The forecaster of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center also explained that it is impossible to predict what winter will be like in Ukraine this year, as such forecasts simply cannot exist. However, according to her, the trend of the last ten years shows that climate change makes winter in Ukraine warmer every year.
"It is too early to predict what winter will be like now. One can only analyze the trend of previous years, what winters were like then, and from this make assumptions about what winter will be like. The trend has been maintained over the last decade, in the context of climate change, that these cold seasons are becoming higher than the climatic norm – each month 1-2 degrees higher than the climatic norm, but we always note that exceptions may occur due to flows of cold Arctic air, the formation of snow cover," explained Natalia Ptukha.
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She also clarified that in recent years, Ukraine has had unstable snow cover. Previously, it was recorded from the beginning of November. However, now it is an episodic phenomenon.
"In recent years, we have had unstable snow cover. Such a concept is gradually disappearing altogether. Previously, there was snow cover in November, and it disappeared approximately in March. Now, snow cover is episodic, it can simply melt in the middle of winter. For some time, it will not be there, and then it will form again – this is a standard situation given the last decade. This is what climatologists record," added Ptukha.
According to the forecaster, meteorological winter can come at any time. Ptukha recalled cases when winter did not come to Ukraine at all.
As for meteorological winter, in previous years, for example, 2019-2020, it did not come to us at all. But we are in such a climatic zone that we can still have inflows of northern air, there is no such thing that there was no short-term temperature drop at all. But there are no clear forecasts.
Finally, the forecaster added that reliable forecasts can only be given for the next 5 days, a maximum of two weeks.
"Now no one will say whether it will be warm or cold in winter. There are trends, but no one in the world predicts based on them. Real forecasts that are included in citizens' plans are for 5-7 days. After that, everything can change dramatically. There are calculations for 10 days, for two weeks, but they change, they are updated every six hours. It is absolutely pointless to rely on them with specific values and territories where, what and how it can be," summarized Natalia Ptukha.