To save Putin's approval rating, Kremlin sociologists had to change their methodology – Intelligence
Kyiv • UNN
Due to Putin's rating falling to 65.6%, VTsIOM introduced door-to-door surveys. The new methodology is based on fear and has already shown an artificial increase in the numbers.
The pro-Kremlin think tank "VTsIOM" was forced to change its polling methodology. Starting from May 2026, a "combined sample" has been introduced instead of telephone interviews: half of the respondents answer by phone, while the rest are surveyed at home through door-to-door visits. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, according to UNN.
The timing for the reform was not chosen by chance. From late December to late April, Putin's "approval" rating dropped by 12.2 percentage points, setting an anti-record since the 2018 pension reform. During the week of April 13–19, the figure reached 65.6% – the lowest value during the entire full-scale war. After February 2022, it mostly stayed within the 75–80% range
As the intelligence service notes, the reaction was predictable. The center stopped publishing weekly ratings, unconvincingly citing the "May holidays": May 8 was a regular working day in Russia, and last year VTsIOM calmly published data even on May 9. The surveys continued – only the publication of results stopped.
As soon as the new methodology was implemented, the rating began to rise. For the week of May 4–10, "approval" grew to 66.8%, and "trust" rose from 71% to 72.1%. The mechanics are clear: telephone surveys better capture irritation and dissatisfaction among those willing to speak frankly. Door-to-door visits provide a different picture – a sociologist comes to the home, looks the person in the eye, and records the answer. Under such conditions, respondents reproduce loyalty. In fact, all Russian ratings measure not Putin's popularity, but specifically the level of fear of telling the truth
Alternative data confirms there was something to hide. According to Levada Center data from May 7, only 43% of Russians say they closely follow the course of hostilities – an absolute minimum for the entire observation period. In early March 2022, this figure was 64%. Support for the army fell to 69%. Peace negotiations are desired by 62% of respondents, while only 27% support continuing the war.
The sociological fiasco was a consequence of the public humiliation of Putin surrounding the May 9 parade. For it to take place, the Kremlin begged Washington to secure the event from possible Ukrainian strikes. President Zelenskyy responded by signing a decree permitting the show – the parade took place without equipment or dignity, but with unprecedented security measures and internet shutdowns. The event, intended to intimidate the world, took place solely through the goodwill of Ukraine.
Manipulations with support figures do not change the essence – the Kremlin no longer perceives its own sociology as a confirmation of loyalty