The Foreign Intelligence Service stated that Russia is losing reserves for wage and household income growth
Kyiv • UNN
Real incomes of Russians grew by only 1.5% due to a collapse in business profits. The non-payment crisis and expensive loans have deprived the Russian Federation of resources for wage growth.
In Russia, the growth of real disposable income is slowing down, while the economy increasingly faces a non-payment crisis, expensive loans, and falling business profitability. The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine stated that the previous rise in income in the Russian Federation has effectively exhausted its resources. This was reported by the SZRU, according to UNN.
Details
According to intelligence data, in the first quarter of 2026, the real income of Russians grew by only 1.5%, whereas last year this figure was nearly 7%.
The SZRU notes that this is happening despite a 9% increase in nominal wages, a slowdown in inflation to 5.86%, and pension hikes.
The explanation is simple: entrepreneurial income has collapsed, and no amount of salary increases for public sector or defense industry workers can plug this hole
According to the SZRU, about half of Russian companies, primarily small and medium-sized businesses, complain about payment issues.
The reasons cited include delays in government settlements for state orders, sanctions restrictions on cross-border payments, and excessively expensive loans.
The intelligence service also provided data on the overdue accounts receivable of Russian organizations, which reached $109 billion by the beginning of 2026—a 21% increase compared to the previous year.
According to the SZRU, the manufacturing industry and the trade sector have accumulated the largest debts.
Furthermore, the share of loss-making companies in Russia has risen to 37%, compared to 32% a year earlier.
The corporate sector is suffocating, and this inevitably hits the pockets of employees: a business that is barely staying afloat itself will not raise wages or maintain its staff
The intelligence service believes that the previous income growth in the Russian Federation was sustained by three factors: a labor shortage due to mobilization, budget injections into the defense sector, and inflationary growth of nominal wages.
However, as the SZRU notes, all these factors are gradually being exhausted, and the economy is increasingly being dragged down by non-payments, expensive loans, and falling business profitability.
