Should you buy an apartment in autumn: expert spoke about prices and risks in the real estate market
Kyiv • UNN
The expert spoke about the current state of the real estate market in Ukraine. The most affordable apartments are now in large cities of the East and Center, Lviv remains the most expensive.
Despite the war, profitable offers can still be found on the Ukrainian real estate market. The most affordable apartments are currently in large cities of the East and Center, while Lviv remains the most expensive among large cities. Currently, one can make a profitable purchase and save money, but with a high level of risk, Denys Shulha, co-founder of the "Encyclopedia of New Buildings" website, told a UNN journalist.
Current state of the real estate market in Ukraine
Despite the war, profitable offers can still be found on the Ukrainian real estate market. The expert notes that prices in Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, and even Kharkiv currently remain attractive. However, he emphasizes the high risks associated with the war and shelling. Further dynamics will depend on the development of the political situation and security conditions.
According to Shulha, after the end of hostilities, Kyiv will be the first city where the cost of square meters will begin to rise. At the same time, he does not rule out a further fall in value in case of political instability.
In Kyiv, for sure, no matter how conditionally the war ends, real estate prices will start to rise. Before the war, real estate in Kyiv was very expensive, and many projects were more expensive than European ones. This real estate could be compared with prices in some European capitals. Then everything collapsed. But it is already starting to grow little by little. And after the end of the war, it will grow even more actively
Primary real estate market and secondary real estate market
Investing in new buildings in cities that are more often under Russian attacks is extremely risky today. In particular, the expert gave his own example.
"I have a complex in Odesa that I bought, but it has been frozen since the first months of the war. The building is all glass, the developer is afraid to continue work. Because the developer, given today's security risks, is afraid to invest in glazing. In case of damage, particularly by Russian attacks, the question of additional investments will arise," he explained.
In contrast, the situation in the western regions looks different. In Uzhhorod, construction of five large residential complexes started only in the last month.
There are objects with 370, 470, and even 700 apartments. Prices start from 900–1100 dollars per square meter. Some buildings are currently at the stage of preparatory work or foundation laying
Thus, while construction in Odesa and many other southern cities has stopped, the Western Ukrainian market shows active growth in demand and supply.
Trends in the Ukrainian real estate market
Lviv, according to Shulha, remains the leader among Ukrainian cities in terms of the volume of housing market transactions, particularly in the Western region. At the same time, the expert believes that local prices are significantly inflated.
Lviv is currently the flagship of the market, number one in Ukraine in terms of turnover. People really buy apartments here, but mostly these are residents of the Lviv region or western regions who want to move to a big city with prospects. At the same time, out-of-towners more often choose to rent - perhaps only 10% buy housing, the rest rent
According to realtors, the new construction market in Lviv relies on local demand, and "Austrian luxury" remains an exception. The latter are quality housing with marble stairs, high ceilings, concrete floors, and large living spaces. These buildings are architectural heritage and are the most valuable in the central part of the city.
"To buy a one-room apartment in the center of Lviv, in a building with simple repairs, you need about 100 thousand dollars. But for the same money in Odesa, you can get a two-room apartment in the center, or even a large "three-room" for 120 thousand," the expert noted.
At the same time, he notes that after the start of the full-scale invasion, some Ukrainians more often prefer renting, even if they have money to buy. This is explained by fears of frozen constructions and possible new moves.
There is a tendency to move out of the city for safety. People are not in a hurry to buy, because they are afraid of losing money. Rent has actually become more expensive in Kyiv and Odesa, in particular due to internal migration and the return of some Ukrainians from Europe
Regarding other cities, the expert believes that the situation is heterogeneous.
"Kharkiv is the worst city for deals, the market actually stopped at the beginning of the war. Things are very bad in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the market is weak in Mykolaiv. The situation is no better in Dnipro. The market is more dynamic in Odesa. But Kyiv has the greatest potential. In the capital, there is pent-up demand: people do not buy due to lack of money, but due to waiting. As soon as there is stability, Kyiv can sharply "shoot up" and become number one," he predicts.
Advantages and risks of buying housing in autumn
Before the full-scale war, the real estate market had a certain seasonality. In summer, especially in July and August, demand, according to the expert, noticeably fell, so developers actively launched promotions and bonus programs for buyers. The second similar period was at the beginning of the year - in January and early February, when sales virtually froze after the New Year holidays.
Instead, a real "hot season" began in October. October, November, and December were traditionally considered the best months for developers: demand grew, and they were no longer so inclined to make concessions to clients.
"Suppose I come in October and say: "Here, I'm ready to buy an apartment, but I'd like an installment plan not for one year, but for two years." The developer says: "I'm not interested." Here, we give it for one year and that's it. Well, let's say. But if I had come with the same offer in July, in August - that's another matter," Shulha explained.
Now the situation is different: prices and buyer activity remain more or less stable throughout the year, says the expert. Large seasonal jumps in demand and large-scale promotions from developers are almost not observed. Whether this is directly related to the war or other factors is difficult to say.
Should you buy real estate now
The most profitable in terms of price now, according to Shulha, is to buy apartments in large cities of the East and Center, in particular in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv. Also quite democratic, especially during the war, in terms of price is real estate in Odesa and some cities of Cherkasy, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions. In the west of the country, the situation is more difficult.
"Adequate prices remain in Lutsk, Rivne, Ternopil, and Chernivtsi, but in Uzhhorod, Frankivsk, and especially Lviv, buying now is unprofitable."
According to Shulha, after the end of the war and Ukraine's integration into the EU, the western regions may become leaders in price growth.
"An apartment that costs 100 thousand dollars today can easily rise in price to 150-170 thousand. It is difficult to predict this now, but it is quite possible," he emphasized.
However, he added that prices in other cities will also "catch up" in case of European integration.
Regarding risks, the situation is completely opposite - namely: investments in real estate in Uzhhorod, Lviv are undoubtedly safer than investments in housing in Sumy or Dnipro.