More than 1400 Iskander ballistic missiles per year: Russia is producing ammunition at an extraordinary rate - British analysts
Kyiv • UNN
Russia is increasing missile production, expanding its army to 1.5 million and creating new military formations. Analysts warn of possible transfer of hostilities outside Ukraine.
Western intelligence agencies' conclusions regarding the renewal and production of military equipment in the Russian Federation differ, but there is a general conclusion about the threatening pace of production of certain ammunition. UNN reports with reference to Economist.
Details
Against the background of the continuation of the war in Ukraine, Russia may "build" plans to transfer hostilities to other territories. There is no specific intelligence data on this now, but British analysts have identified several key points that indicate the threat of the Russian military machine.
- Russia has plans to expand its armed forces to 1.5 million servicemen.
- Also, the Russian Federation is trying to create new forces and, according to intelligence officers of the United Kingdom of Great Britain, is producing ammunition at an extraordinary speed.
Regarding the latter aspect. During the years of aggressive war in Ukraine, the Russian army lost a lot of forces, equipment and personnel, and may not be capable of complex maneuvers at a certain time. On the other hand, even if a ceasefire agreement is signed in Ukraine, it will be difficult to withdraw a large number of Russian armed forces - this may allow Ukraine to regain territory, according to analyst Konrad Muzyka.
New forces will have to be created, and this factor is already actively "put into operation" on the territory of the Russian Federation. Currently, Russia is producing ammunition at an extraordinary speed:
More than 1,400 Iskander ballistic missiles per year, as well as 500 Kh-101 cruise missiles
At the same time, in other areas, the current production rates are "unviable".
Only 10-15% of the 1,500-2,000 tanks and 3,000 other armored combat vehicles produced annually are new. The rest are repaired from old Soviet stocks.
These reserves may run out by 2026 if current loss rates continue, notes Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment.
The production of Russian armored vehicles may have peaked this year, analysts add.
Regarding the expansion of the personnel of the Russian armed forces.
(Russia) aims to expand its armed forces to 1.5 million troops, compared to approximately 1.3 million in September. In 2023, it announced the creation of a new formation, the 44th Army Corps, in Karelia, along the Finnish border.
It is noted that the first units of the 44th Army Corps were lost in Ukraine last year. But Russia is also expanding several brigades into larger divisions. However, researchers note that all this will take years.
Thus, there are questions of human resources and military equipment.
If in the short term Russia is certainly recruiting about 30,000 men per month, in the long term it faces problems.
But the restoration of materiel, according to Michael Kofman, also of the Carnegie Endowment, will be much faster and easier than the actual ability to use these forces.
Reference
Western officials believe that since the end of 2024, Russian military hospitals have been operating at full capacity.
General Chris Cavoli, Supreme Commander of the Joint Armed Forces of NATO in Europe, said in April that Russia had suffered approximately 790,000 casualties.
Many of those who died or were injured are junior officers needed to lead units in expanded forces
Public announcements about funerals indicate that between 2022 and 2024, Russia lost approximately as many lieutenants as are usually needed to staff ten divisions or brigades.
Addition
Meanwhile, if we assume that the European rearmament will gain momentum, as stated in the calls in the plans of Western leaders, we can assume that Russia will probably remain restrained from further military action.
But its appetite for risk may still increase, not least if it believes that Mr. Trump may ignore minor violations.
We will remind
War has become an ideology in Russia, Moscow may double influence operations, cause a split in NATO and carry out new provocations. Support for Ukraine is not enough to make the entire continent safe - Europe must do more.